Round 3 is only thirty-six hours or so away and it’s time to tip. Unlike last week, where both Greeks completely agreed, there is a fair bit of disagreement for the upcoming fixtures. Last year, you would’ve been well advised to listen to Eratosthenes but Archimedes is off to a great start in 2018, having nailed eleven from sixteen NRL tips. Very Tigers/Knights/Warriors-like. I’m no help, as my week of disagreements with the Greeks in round 2 meant I only got four from eight.
Last week, we took a look at estimating the number of premierships we expected NRL teams to have won versus the number of premierships they actually won. This was spurred by a Twitter query from AFL fan, Bill (whose name I don’t remember and won’t be searching for), who asked the same question of someone else but about AFL.
Well Bill, this week, I did it for you.
The NRL machine continues to chug along, churning out mysterious results that don’t align at all with the previous week. That is, unless you are Canterbury or Souths, in which case, you’ve made your bed and 2018 will see you lie in it. The Tigers are proving that not only do coaches matter but on-paper team strength doesn’t count for a lot when you can dominate possession. I never thought I’d ever have Luke Brooks photo on this website but the dude deserves it. Finally, Parramatta lost by more than fifty, which is just so good, and the Raiders endured another close loss, which is not.
If you’re the Eels, probably a lot more than zero. But I’m getting ahead of myself.
Around the start of the finals last year, The Arc posted the probabilities of each finalist winning the AFL grand final. Some guy on Twitter (let’s call him Bill because I don’t remember who it was and I’m not digging out a throwaway tweet from six months ago) asked if the probabilities had been calculated for all finals series throughout history so we could see how many teams were expected to win against reality. They hadn’t but more on that next week.
I thought, in the true embodiment of the philosophy of this site, “That’s a great idea. I’m gonna do that but for NRL.”
Round 1 delivered a wild weekend of results, with a huge swing to home teams. Archimedes was all over that, courtesy of the gaps between teams being overwhelmed by the home ground advantage. Consequently, it got lucky while Eratosthenes and I suffered with what were logical but ultimately, bad choices. This week is a new week.
We’re finally off and racing in 2018. Every NRL fan has finally seen their team take the field in anger for the first time. For most, it wasn’t a pretty sight with a lot of polish still to be put on their respective games. That said, there were flashes of what is to come from the contenders and it remains to be seen who was lucky and who will be in the running come September.
Rugby league is back, baby. It’s good again. Awoouu (wolf Howl)
Yes, the rugby league tipping equivalent of a dril tweet has returned for another season of being really bad at tipping but not so bad that you could take it to the bank as a contrarian indicator.
Before we get down to business, there are some announcements to be made.