Tag Archives: draws

Analysis – The more competitive the season, the more bums on seats

Most rugby league commentators wouldn’t know what a linear regression is or how do one. I’m no different but I do like to compare two variables and see if they’re correlated. A scatter plot with a linear trendline and an R-squared – remember R-squared goes from 0, no correlation, to 1, perfect correlation; I usually need at least 0.2 to raise an eyebrow – is all I need to keep me entertained for hours on end.

Last week, we looked the concept of competitiveness and how to measure it. This week, I want to see if (more or less) competitiveness impacts on other aspects of the game. Using my preferred ratings gap as a proxy for how competitive a season is, this post looks at a few variables to see if they’re correlated.

If you want a specific variable looked at, give me a yell.


draws vs gap

Surprisingly, there’s no link between the number of draws and how competitive the season is. There’s basically a correlation of nothing with an R-squared of 0.03 . I think draws are more about the specific teams in question and I think golden point may play a role but the overall season competitiveness doesn’t matter.

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Analysis – Golden Point is (close to) a coin toss

In 2003, the Golden Point system was introduced to decide games that were drawn at full time. Prior to that, instead of the two points awarded to the outright winner, the drawn teams would split the points and take home one competition point each.

Golden Point continues play for a further ten minutes after full time in two five minute halves or until a team scores at least one point, winning the game. A field goal is the most common way these games are decided. If the game has no points scored after the ten minutes, then the game remains drawn and the teams share the points.

I don’t love it and I think it’s a crapshoot.

(Crap-shoot or craps-hoot? One sounds more fun than the other)

Look! Here’s some evidence to suggest it is a craps-hoot.

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