Short answer: with a lot of time spent in Excel and Google Sheets. Long answer: It depends on what you want to do. I introduced the Elo rating system in a previous primer. Now it’s time to put it to work. I think most sport’s fans would agree with the following definitions of form and class… Read More Primer – How do Elo models work?
Pythagorean expectation is the idea that you can calculate a team’s winning percentage based solely on its for and against. It originated with baseball nerds but, according to its Wikipedia article, has been adapted for other sports. It is also where the name of this site came from. Pythago is basically what Pythagoras would have been if… Read More Primer – What is a Pythagorean expectation?
Elo ratings originated in chess as a way to rate different players. A player starts with a rating of 1500 by convention and then the rating goes up or down depending on whether the players wins or loses. The player’s rating will change proportionally to the rating of their opponent: if the player beats a very… Read More Primer – What are Elo ratings?
Note: this was published on April 5 but backdated to the day it should have been posted. It will be plainly obvious that I did not change the tips to make me look better. “Success” Finally, getting slightly less ouchy. Draw
Note: post published on April 5 but backdated to suit the date it should have been posted. Round 4 Results Sydney 20 (4-0) d South Sydney 6 (2-2) Penrith 40 (2-2) d Newcastle 0 (1-3) Brisbane 13 (2-2) d Canberra 12 (1-3) Manly 36 (2-2) d Canterbury 0 (1-3) Cronulla 20 (2-2) d Parramatta 6 (2-2) North Queensland 32 (3-1) d Gold Coast 26 (1-3) Melbourne 22 (4-0) d Wests Tigers 14 (1-3) St George Illawarra 26… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 4, 2017
Note: this was published on April 5 but backdated to the day it should have been posted. It will be plainly obvious that I did not change the tips to make me look better. “Success” Ouchier. Draw
Note: post published on April 5 but backdated to suit the date it should have been posted. Round 3 Results Melbourne 14 (3-0) d Brisbane 12 (1-2) Canterbury 24 (1-2) d New Zealand 12 (1-2) Gold Coast 26 (1-2) d Parramatta 14 (2-1) South Sydney 24 (2-1) d Newcastle 18 (1-2) Sydney 14 (3-0) d Penrith 12 (1-2) Manly 30 (1-2) d North Queensland 8 (2-1) Canberra 46 (1-2) d Wests Tigers 6 (1-2) St… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 3, 2017
Note: this was published on April 5 but backdated to the day it should have been posted. It will be plainly obvious that I did not change the tips to make me look better. “Success” Ouch. Draw
Note: post published on April 5 but backdated to suit the date it should have been posted. Round 2 Results Sydney 28 (2-0) d Canterbury 24 (0-2) Melbourne 26 (2-0) d New Zealand 10 (1-1) North Queensland 21 (2-0) d Brisbane 20 (1-1) Newcastle 34 (1-1) d Gold Coast 26 (0-2) South Sydney 38 (1-1) d Manly 18 (0-2) Cronulla 42 (1-1) d Canberra 16 (0-2) Penrith 36 (1-1) d Wests Tigers 2 (1-1)… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 2, 2017
Note: this was published on April 5 but backdated to the day it should have been posted. It will be plainly obvious that I did not change the tips to make me look better. “Success” Draw
Pythago NRL 