I mentioned during last week’s tips that the rating systems take a while – give or take six weeks – to dial in to a new season. I was asked during the week what the Jury’s tipping rates look like across the year. I thought that was a good question, so I looked into it:
This is just for the unanimous Jury verdicts but I think we’d see a similar pattern across all of the metrics or voting combinations. As you can see, we start out pretty wobbly but come storming home towards the back end of the season. Your own tipping rates probably aren’t too dissimilar.
It’s also worth pointing out that, while 56% is a bit better than a coin flip, it’s also about par for the average home team winning rate. Since the NRL began in 1998 to the end of the 2018 regular season, the home team won 2,294 out of 4,012 games or 57.1%. That rate has dropped noticeably over the last years to just 55.7% or 535 wins in 960 starts.