I mentioned during last week’s tips that the rating systems take a while – give or take six weeks – to dial in to a new season. I was asked during the week what the Jury’s tipping rates look like across the year. I thought that was a good question, so I looked into it:
This is just for the unanimous Jury verdicts but I think we’d see a similar pattern across all of the metrics or voting combinations. As you can see, we start out pretty wobbly but come storming home towards the back end of the season. Your own tipping rates probably aren’t too dissimilar.
It’s also worth pointing out that, while 56% is a bit better than a coin flip, it’s also about par for the average home team winning rate. Since the NRL began in 1998 to the end of the 2018 regular season, the home team won 2,294 out of 4,012 games or 57.1%. That rate has dropped noticeably over the last years to just 55.7% or 535 wins in 960 starts.
The point is: don’t get too excited about the rating systems just yet. You can see my round 1 tips for a brief explanation of each of the rating systems and this week’s piece put Poseidon into action as a way of demonstrating some of its features.
Here are the tips for this weekend’s action:
National Rugby League
Intrust Super Cup
In honour of round 3 being Rivalry Round and me being a bit short on time thanks to Brewsvegas (seriously, go get to something this week if you’re in Brisbane), in lieu of a hot take, I’m going to give you my tip and the rivalry’s record. You can read more about derbies in A complete history of the Queenlsand Cup.
Pythago NRL 