Tag Archives: Tips

NRL Tips – Round 1, 2019

But first, a refresher

This year I’m going to be providing tips for each round of the NRL and the ISC using four mathematical rating systems. None of the four metrics rely on subjective human assessments and instead, each rating system takes in cold, hard numbers and spits out tips.

While each tool has a useful predictive track record (some are better than others), they are unlikely to outperform the best human tipsters. However, the systems are also not subject to the cognitive biases that people naturally develop and can offer insights that might otherwise be overlooked.

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ISC Tips – Round 1, 2019

Footy’s back, baby! You know, if you don’t count Super League (#COYW awwwoouuu). Anyway, the Intrust Super Cup returns for another year of gritty Queensland/somewhat international rugby league action.

I had intended to write a season preview for the QCup but I had a few problems with it. One was a lack of time, another was a lack of insight to offer. Then there was the preview from The Gurgler, which was pretty much a good reflection of my thinking. And I mean, exactly, because even the bits of the season preview I had written are reflected in their preview. It’s a little scary actually.

So I moved directly on to tipping. The format is a little different this year but I hope you enjoy the improved graphics and extra team metrics (you can read about PPG and Poseidon) in lieu of the jokey-analysis-words that I use to provide.

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What’s new in 2019

I had meant to do some wrap-up posts after I got back from my honeymoon but it felt like the moment had passed, being two or three weeks after the grand final, and I didn’t have much to say other than the navel gazing stuff that people really don’t care about it.

This tweet sums up the 2018 season on the blog pretty well though:

This post is about some of the stuff that’s changed and what’s a work in progress but mostly to let you know that we are indeed in business in 2019.

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Stats of Six: Is 2018 the worst top eight in NRL finals history?

Using the same format I used during the rep weekend, this is the finals preview-ish post.

I didn’t get to do all the analysis I wanted to because I’ve run out of time. By the time this gets published, I should be somewhere in or around California starting my honeymoon, which I think should probably take priority. I won’t be filing from America (in fact I probably won’t see any rugby league for six weeks) but I will be back in October or November to do some post-season stuff.

This post relies pretty heavily on Elo ratings, so you might want to brush up.

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NRL Tips – Round 25, 2018

And we made it. It’s last the tips post for 2018. I plan to do a finals preview, once the top eight is actually decided, and maybe one more recap and then that’s it for a while.

Let’s not delay then and get into it.

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NRL Tips – Round 24, 2018

We’re in the penultimate round of the regular season and can definitely feel the approaching finals footy. There’s still some unfinished business to be resolved, specifically ensuring that the Tigers finish ninth as they are destined to do until the heat death of the universe, or maybe when Jeremy Marshall-King’s backended contract at the Bulldogs forces a transfer to Wests and history can try to repeat with the lesser relative. Or maybe they will have to wait until Benji’s and Robbie’s kids grow up?

In the meantime, my tipping has gone to crap so maybe you should ignore me and go with the Greeks.

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NRL Tips – Round 23, 2018

I kind of liked last week’s format, so I might try to hybridise it with the typical 2018 format. Originally, I wanted to cut down on the time these took to put together but unfortunately I also like to type a lot of garbage. Instead of the Other Games paragraph that I was throwing together and didn’t add much insight, I’m going to flesh those out a bit more but at the expense of making the top three games by MVR a little shorter.

It’s amazing that I’ve been doing this for nearly two seasons and still haven’t settled on a format I really like. Might need to follow the crowd and do a reader survey post-season to help inform it.

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