Your men’s Manly Sea Eagles finished the 2022 season in eleventh place with a 9-15 record and -105 points difference. With the tenth best attack (20.4 points scored per game) and the twelfth best defence (24.8 points conceded per game) and a slight underperformance of their Pythagorean expectation of 9.8 wins, Manly ended up about… Read More A Shallow Dive into the 2022 Manly Sea Eagles
The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, one time historically bad team, finished the season 16-8 and rounded out the top four. With a points differential of +252, in a normal season, that would have possibly been enough for a minor premiership. They fell five wins short. In the finals, they were embarrassed by the Storm, then embarrased… Read More A Shallow Dive into the 2021 Manly Sea Eagles
I think the best way to start these reviews is to set the tone by recapping what I thought would happen back in February. The key paragraph for Manly in this year’s season preview was: Backing up without the element of surprise and the reversion to mean will be challenging. Reversion to mean is a… Read More A Shallow Dive into the 2020 Manly Sea Eagles
At this time of year, is there anything else you want to know more than the answer to this question? For our crystal ball, we turn to Monte Carlo simulations. These simulations work on the principle that if we know the inputs to a complex system and how they relate to each other, then we… Read More Who will win the 2019 NRL Premiership?
With the first Maori versus Indigenous All-stars game and another edition of the World Club Challenge in the history books, our attention turns to the NRL season ahead. As with last year, I’m going to do a SWOP – Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Prospect – analysis for each team. My general philosophy for judging a team’s… Read More A deep dive for each team’s 2019 NRL season
Last year’s Rugby League World Cup introduced the sport to a lot of new potential fans around the world. If anyone in rugby league administration could see past their nose, they’d be trying to win over these new converts to the game’s top competition: the National Rugby League. The 2018 season starts this week and… Read More One thing new NRL fans need to know about each team
The only thing more reliable than March bringing rugby league back is the slew of season previews that each and every media outlet feels the need to produce. I’m no different in this regard and here is what is likely to be the longest post I’ve ever compiled. This year’s season preview takes a look… Read More A deep dive for each NRL team’s 2018 season
The Stocky is the main forecasting tool driving the analysis on this site. It’s a simulator of the season ahead, using the Monte Carlo method and based on Elo ratings, that gives insight into the future performance of each club. My main interest has been the number of wins, as it determines ladder positions which in… Read More Analysis – Stocky vs Reality: Did your team outperform? (Pt II)
The Stocky is the main forecasting tool driving the analysis on this site. It’s a simulator of the season ahead, using the Monte Carlo method and based on Elo ratings, that gives insight into the future performance of each club. My main interest has been the number of wins, as it determines ladder positions which in… Read More Analysis – Stocky vs Reality: Did your team outperform? (Pt I)
With the conclusion of round 13, it’s half time in the 2017 NRL season. It’s the ideal time to do what everyone else is doing and look back at the season so far. This week we’re looking at the first eight clubs that come up in alphabetical order. Part II to come next week. Benchmarks There… Read More Analysis – Another bloody mid-season review (Part I)
Pythago NRL 