Background

The Brisbane Broncos have been one of the consistently strongest teams in rugby league since their inception in 1987. Having the relatively massive rugby league-loving Brisbane market to themselves, the Broncos have taken a slew of premierships in 1992, 1993, 1997 (albeit a Super League title), 1998, 2000 and 2006. Besides a grand final appearance in 2015, it has been a dry spell for Brisbane despite making all but two finals series since the NRL began in 1998.

The Broncos have been the incubator of a slew of rugby league’s stars, including Wally Lewis, Allan Langer, Darren Lockyer and former senator Glenn Lazarus (who thought they’d ever have to say that?), not to mention long-serving coach, Wayne Bennett. The 2017 Broncos vintage looks as promising as ever. They can never be written off but are they premiers in the making? We will have to wait and see.

Class

Using the Eratosthenes system, we measure the long term class – their structural competence – of NRL clubs.

The Brisbane Broncos’ current rating is 1593. Brisbane have had an average class rating of 1562 since 1998. The only team with a better average rating is Melbourne. Over the last decade, their average rating has been 1544, well above the average rating of 1500 and third best in the NRL, after Melbourne and Manly.

The Broncos achieved a maximum rating of 1657, after round 15, 2001, which is higher than all but four other teams (Canterbury, Melbourne, Parramatta and Sydney). After round 8 in 2012, Brisbane were rated 1596, their highest in the last ten years.

Brisbane’s lowest ever rating was 1491, suffered after the first round of 2015. This is the best record of any club after Melbourne and pre-merger St George (for which we only have one season of ratings).

NRL Honours

• Premierships – 3 | 1998, 2000, 2006
• Runners-up – 1 | 2015
• Minor Premierships – 2 | 1998, 2000
• Finalist – 17 | 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016
• Wooden Spoons – 0

Record (rd1/1998 – rd9/2017)

• Games 507
• Wins 295 (58.2%)
• Draws 6
• Points For 11,649
• Points Against 9,392
• Net F/A +2,257
• Pythagorean expectation 60.1%

Form

Using the Archimedes system, we measure the short term form of NRL clubs.

Brisbane have averaged a form rating of 1533 over the last 26 rounds plus finals. Their current rating is 1570.

The Broncos highest rating was 1664 after their win in the 2016 qualifying final. The lowest rating was 1419, after round 21 in 2016.

Record (last 26 rounds)

• Finished 2016 in 5th
• Games 26
• Wins 15 (57.6%)
• Draws 0
• Points For 563
• Points Against 518
• Net F/A +45
• Pythagorean expectation 53.0%

Stocky Projection

We use the Stocky to predict what might happen in the season ahead. This is what the Stocky has predicted for Brisbane so far in the 2017 season.