Club Report – Wests Tigers

wst-badgeBackground

Wests Tigers have won one premiership. The year was 2005 and a young Benji Marshall side-stepped an entire league to lead his team to an extremely unlikely victory over grand final debutants, the North Queensland Cowboys. The Tigers had finished the regular season in fourth, behind the Eels, Broncos and Dragons.

The Tigers were formed in 2000 from a merger of the Western Suburbs Magpies, a team the NSWRL had been trying to get rid of for years, and the Balmain Tigers. The resulting joint venture has struggled for success beyond their fairytale year but never have hit the rock bottom of receiving a wooden spoon. It’s been six years since the Tigers featured in the finals and a year or two of re-building is ahead before they may make another appearance.

Class

Using the Eratosthenes system, we measure the long term class – their structural competence – of NRL clubs.

The Wests Tigers’ current rating is 1417, which is the third lowest rating in the league ahead of the Gold Coast Titans and Newcastle Knights and just behind the New Zealand Warriors. The Tigers have had an average class rating of 1449 since 2000. Only the Rabbitohs have had a worse average NRL class rating.

Over the last decade, the Tigers’ average rating was 1483. This is better than Canberra, Cronulla, Gold Coast, Newcastle, Parramatta, Penrith and Souths, putting Wests in ninth.

wst-class-2017.PNG

Wests peaked at a maximum rating of 1560 during their most recent finals appearance in 2011. This is the second lowest peak of any team. Only the Titans have had a lower peak. Looking at just the last ten years, the Tigers peak is better than the Raiders, Titans, Knights, Eels, Panthers and Warriors.

The Tigers’ lowest ever rating was 1303, having been deducted points for the merger. Only the Rabbitohs have been lower at 1297. If we look at just the last ten years, the lowest rating is 1414. The Rabbitohs, Panthers, Eels, Cowboys, Knights, Titans and Sharks have all been worse.

NRL Honours

  • Premierships – 1 | 2005
  • Runners-up – 0
  • Minor Premierships – 0
  • Finalist – 3 | 2005, 2010, 2011
  • Wooden Spoons – 0

Record (rd1/2000 – rd25/2017)

  • Games 444
  • Wins 192 (43.2%)
  • Draws 2
  • Points For 9,231
  • Points Against 10,553
  • Net F/A -1,322
  • Pythagorean expectation 43.7%

Form

Using the Archimedes system, we measure the short term form of NRL clubs.

The Tigers have averaged a form rating of 1407 over the last 26 regular season rounds. Their current rating is 1362.

wst-form-2017.PNG

Wests’ highest rating over the last twenty-six rounds was 1534 after their opening round win over Souths. The lowest rating in the set is 1308, after their round 20 (narrow) loss to the Eels.

Record (last 26 rounds)

  • Finished 2016 in 9th
  • Currently 15th
  • Games 26
  • Wins 6 (23.0%)
  • Draws 0
  • Points For 395
  • Points Against 607
  • Net F/A -212
  • Pythagorean expectation 30.7%

Stocky Projection

We use the Stocky to predict what might happen in the season ahead. Given the point in the season, we can summarise with this graph.

wst-stocky-2017-2.PNG