The Stocky is the main forecasting tool driving the analysis on this site. It’s a simulator of the season ahead, using the Monte Carlo method and based on Elo ratings, that gives insight into the future performance of each club. My main interest has been the number of wins, as it determines ladder positions which in… Read More Analysis – Stocky vs Reality: Did your team outperform? (Pt I)
Only three games to go. There are a couple of finals places still up for grabs, as well as the all important wooden spoon battle, which is proving to be more inspirational than wondering which big market team is going to finish where in the top four. Draw Gold Coast (7-14) @ Parramatta (13-8) While the… Read More NRL Tips – Round 24, 2017
Results South Sydney 28 (8-13) d Canterbury 14 (7-14) Newcastle 29 (5-16) d Parramatta 10 (13-8) Brisbane 32 (14-7) d Cronulla 10 (13-8) St George Illawarra 42 (11-10) d Gold Coast 16 (7-14) Melbourne 16 (17-4) d Sydney City 13 (14-7) Penrith 24 (12-9) d North Queensland 16 (12-9) Canberra 36 (10-11) d New Zealand 16 (7-14) Wests Tigers 30 (6-15) d Manly… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 23, 2017
It may surprise you to discover that this blog is actually fairly low on my list of priorities and when time’s tight, its always going to be the first to suffer so this isn’t going to be much of a post. With that in mind, this week’s games are looking like a re-run of round… Read More NRL Tips – Round 23, 2017
Most rugby league commentators wouldn’t know what a linear regression is or how do one. I’m no different but I do like to compare two variables and see if they’re correlated. A scatter plot with a linear trendline and an R-squared – remember R-squared goes from 0, no correlation, to 1, perfect correlation; I usually… Read More Analysis – The more competitive the season, the more bums on seats
I’m running a bit short on time this week, so I’ll dispense with the usual round up of matches and dive straight into it. Actually, I’ll take one moment to say that I watched five of the eight games on the weekend (missed the Saturday fixtures) and the Souths-Saints game was the best of the… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 22, 2017
I struggled to get this post together. I must be running low on creative juices after what feels like a season that’s already been decided (Melbourne to win everything) but for some reason, we have to go through the formalities of playing the last few games. I propose we just lock the ladder positions now,… Read More NRL Tips – Round 22, 2017
The short answer is yes and no. Yes, the NRL is more competitive now than when it started but no, it doesn’t seem to be a thing that improves consistently year-on-year. Let me explain. On this blog, we use Elo ratings to measure teams’ performances and assess each team’s probability of winning a game in… Read More Analysis – Is the NRL getting more competitive?
Background Parramatta of the ’80s and Parramatta of the ’00s were powerhouses of top flight rugby league. The ’80s vintage managed to win their first, second, third and fourth premierships. The ’00s vintage, on the other hand, was less successful. In 2001, Parra won all but four games of the regular season, taking the minor… Read More Club Report – Parramatta Eels
I think rugby league historians prefer the expression “dour” when they really mean “boring” game. The Panthers-Bulldogs match on Thursday night will not be making much of an impression in the record books and so I think we’re safe to use the expression “boring”. The teams went to the break at Pepper Stadium even but… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 21, 2017
Pythago NRL 