Last time, we went off-piste and moved from rigorous analysis to speculative analysis. Let’s go further off-piste and apply Cap in ways that it was never meant to be (that’s why we’ve switched from “Analysis” to “Opinion”, even I have my limits).
Because of the capacity constraints discussed a few weeks ago, it’s a bit hard to judge just how popular NRL expansion would be in Brisbane. Using some Cap metrics, we can estimate what an “optimal” number of clubs might look like.
If we only care about maintaining a 15,000 average attendance, then:
- 6 teams would give a Cap of 2.2
- 5 teams = 2.6
- 4 teams = 3.3
- 3 teams = 4.4
- 2 teams = 6.5
On the other hand, if we use the relationship between teams per capita and Cap developed a few weeks ago: