The Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles, one time historically bad team, finished the season 16-8 and rounded out the top four. With a points differential of +252, in a normal season, that would have possibly been enough for a minor premiership. They fell five wins short. In the finals, they were embarrassed by the Storm, then embarrased… Read More A Shallow Dive into the 2021 Manly Sea Eagles
I think the best way to start these reviews is to set the tone by recapping what I thought would happen back in February. The key paragraph for Manly in this year’s season preview was: Backing up without the element of surprise and the reversion to mean will be challenging. Reversion to mean is a… Read More A Shallow Dive into the 2020 Manly Sea Eagles
At this time of year, is there anything else you want to know more than the answer to this question? For our crystal ball, we turn to Monte Carlo simulations. These simulations work on the principle that if we know the inputs to a complex system and how they relate to each other, then we… Read More Who will win the 2019 NRL Premiership?
The Stocky is the main forecasting tool driving the analysis on this site. It’s a simulator of the season ahead, using the Monte Carlo method and based on Elo ratings, that gives insight into the future performance of each club. My main interest has been the number of wins, as it determines ladder positions which in… Read More Analysis – Stocky vs Reality: Did your team outperform? (Pt II)
The Stocky is the main forecasting tool driving the analysis on this site. It’s a simulator of the season ahead, using the Monte Carlo method and based on Elo ratings, that gives insight into the future performance of each club. My main interest has been the number of wins, as it determines ladder positions which in… Read More Analysis – Stocky vs Reality: Did your team outperform? (Pt I)
With the conclusion of round 13, it’s half time in the 2017 NRL season. It’s the ideal time to do what everyone else is doing and look back at the season so far. This week we’re looking at the first eight clubs that come up in alphabetical order. Part II to come next week. Benchmarks There… Read More Analysis – Another bloody mid-season review (Part I)
Background After an ARL premiership in 1996, Manly entered the NRL in a slightly awkward position. The Sea Eagles took up the NRL’s offer to merge with local rivals North Sydney, forming the Northern Eagles. On-field performances were terrible and in 2003, it was apparent that the marriage was dysfunctional. The venture got a divorce –… Read More Club Report – Manly Sea Eagles
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