Background

After an ARL premiership in 1996, Manly entered the NRL in a slightly awkward position. The Sea Eagles took up the NRL’s offer to merge with local rivals North Sydney, forming the Northern Eagles. On-field performances were terrible and in 2003, it was apparent that the marriage was dysfunctional. The venture got a divorce – the Bears never returned to first grade while the Sea Eagles have stuck it out since.

Since the divorce, Manly have been one of the strongest teams in the competition with an unbroken run of finals appearances from 2005 to 2014. Only the salary cap-breaching Melbourne were better and there’s a solid argument that the two runners-up “honours” held by the Sea Eagles could perhaps have been premierships. The last couple of years have not been up to standard but after a patchy start, this year sees them as genuine finals contenders again.

Class

Using the Eratosthenes system, we measure the long term class – their structural competence – of NRL clubs.

The Manly Sea Eagles’ current rating is 1502. Manly have had an average class rating of 1510 since 1998. This average has been bettered by the Broncos, Bulldogs, Storm, Knights, Dragons and Roosters and is on par with the Eels. Over the last decade, their average rating has been 1572, well above the average rating of 1500 and a record that has only been improved upon by Melbourne.

The Sea Eagles achieved a maximum rating of 1632, after the second round of 2012. This is eighth best in the competition, behind Brisbane, Canterbury, Melbourne,  Newcastle, Parramatta, St George Illawarra and Sydney.

Manly’s lowest ever rating was 1367, suffered after rounds 7 and 8 during the 2004 season. This is one of the worst records: the current Knights, post-merger Tigers and the returned South Sydney are the only clubs that have been in worse shape. The last ten years have seen the rating only dip to as low as 1484, most recently after round 2 this year.

NRL Honours

• Premierships – 2 | 2008, 2011
• Runners-up – 2 | 2007, 2013
• Minor Premierships – 0
• Finalist – 11 | 1998, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
• Wooden Spoons – 0

Record (rd1/1998 – rd12/2017)

• Games 494
• Wins 256 (56.7%)
• Draws 3
• Points For 10,917
• Points Against 10,807
• Net F/A +164
• Pythagorean expectation 50.7%

Form

Using the Archimedes system, we measure the short term form of NRL clubs.

Manly have averaged a form rating of 1452 over the last 26 games. Their current rating is 1535.

The Sea Eagles’ highest rating is their current rating. The lowest rating was 1358, after round 16 last year.

Record (last 26 rounds)

• Finished 2016 in 13th
• Games 23
• Wins 9 (39.1%)
• Draws 0
• Points For 523
• Points Against 520
• Net F/A +3
• Pythagorean expectation 50.3%

Stocky Projection

We use the Stocky to predict what might happen in the season ahead. This is what the Stocky has predicted for Manly Warringah so far in the 2017 season.