Tag Archives: rating

NRL Projections Update – Round 25, 2017

Results

parramatta-sm Parramatta 52 (15-8) d brisbane-sm Brisbane 34 (15-8)

canberra-sm Canberra 46 (11-12) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 28 (5-18)

north qld-sm North Queensland 22 (13-10) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 14 (6-17)

canterbury-sm Canterbury 26 (9-14) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 14 (7-16)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 64 (19-4) d souths-sm South Sydney 6 (9-14)

sydney city-sm Sydney City 16 (16-7) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 14 (14-9)

manly-sm Manly 22 (13-10) d warriors-sm New Zealand 21 (7-16)

st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 16 (12-11) d penrith-sm Penrith 14 (13-10)

Collated Ladder

Now to look ahead to see what the Collated Ladder has predicted for the final standings of the season.

The Collated Ladder is a bit useless now and I’m mostly just publishing it for completeness. For example, it strangely has both Brisbane and North Queensland losing their final round face-off, which is a relic of the way the ladder comes together. Look at the Stocky column for a better bet:

  • 90% of a last win – Sydney
  • 80% of a last win – Melbourne, Parra
  • 70% of a last win – Penrith, St George
  • Approx 50:50 – Brisbane/NQ and Cronulla/Newcastle

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NRL Tips – Round 25, 2017

This is a real headscratcher of a round. Enough crap teams have recently found some form in the bottom of the barrel so they can at least go into pre-season training with a semblance of self-esteem. It also means that they are playing better than the teams whose season is actually on the line. The top teams are starting to rest players (Storm rested Cronk last week, Kahu is off this week for the Donkeys) which makes it even harder to call. As if I haven’t suffered enough this year.

Draw

parramatta-sm Parramatta (14-8) @ brisbane-sm Brisbane (15-7)

As the old song says “Thursday night’s a mediocre night for football.” But the game’s in Brisbane which means about four Sydney games’ worth of people will turn up.

Parramatta won this fixture not that long ago. If I do my maths correctly, it was actually only five weeks ago but 89% of people on footytips.com.au are tipping Brisbane. Why? Because even nefarious and immoral teams like the Eels get lucky against brave and honest teams like the Broncos.

I may have been reading too much of the Courier Mail lately.

The Broncos have been playing out of their skin, scoring points like no one’s business. Their defence is less solid but it won’t matter because Parra’s attack isn’t that great (6th lowest ‘for’ and only put 30 past the Titans last week) and while their defence is good enough, it’s not good enough to stop the Boyd/Milford/Nikorima/Hunt show that’s been doing the rounds the last few weeks. Broncos to take the two. Read more

NRL Projections Update – Round 24, 2017

Results

parramatta-sm Parramatta 30 (14-8) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 8 (7-15)

souths-sm South Sydney 36 (9-13) d warriors-sm New Zealand 18 (7-15)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 24 (15-7) d st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 12 (11-11)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 44 (18-4) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 12 (5-17)

sydney city-sm Sydney City 22 (15-7) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 18 (6-16)

cronulla-sm Cronulla 26 (14-8) d north qld-sm North Queensland 16 (12-10)

penrith-sm Penrith 26 (13-9) d canberra-sm Canberra 22 (10-12)

canterbury-sm Canterbury 30 (8-14) d manly-sm Manly 16 (12-10)

Collated Ladder

Now to look ahead to see what the Collated Ladder has predicted for the final standings of the season.

Unsurprisingly, the Collated Ladder is starting to closely resemble the actual ladder. The top six are pretty well safe now and I’d be surprised if their positions change much between now and the end of the season.

Due to some shenanigans in the Stocky (which I elaborate on below), positions 7 through 10 have changed rather significantly from last week, particularly if you’re from North Queensland or the northern beaches of Sydney. Points difference is going to be extremely important to secure the last two finals spots. Here’s what the draw has for the teams in the firing line:

  • Dragons: Panthers, then Bulldogs
  • Raiders: Knights, then Storm
  • Sea Eagles: Warriors, then Panthers
  • Cowboys: Tigers, then Broncos

Given the topsy-turvy form on display in recent weeks (e.g. Tigers, Bulldogs, Knights winning), there’s not what you would call any gimmes in that lot, especially given all four contenders are struggling for form. Undoubtedly, something resembling luck will come into it.

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NRL Tips – Round 24, 2017

Only three games to go. There are a couple of finals places still up for grabs, as well as the all important wooden spoon battle, which is proving to be more inspirational than wondering which big market team is going to finish where in the top four.

Draw

gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast (7-14) @ parramatta-sm Parramatta (13-8)

While the Gold Coast melts down over whether they’ll keep their coach or their “star” fullback/centre or boot both or neither, Parramatta have had to spend a week of soul searching after a devastating loss to Newcastle – probably the worst side to play this decade – brought their six game winning streak to a grinding halt.

The question is: Will Parramatta recover? I almost think it’s irrelevant what the Eels do. The real question is: do the Titans even bother to show up or will they follow their erstwhile leader’s example and half ass it? I’m expecting three-quarter ass tops, so the Eels should be able to recover and get their finals campaign on track.

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NRL Projections Update – Round 23, 2017

Results

souths-sm South Sydney 28 (8-13) d canterbury-sm Canterbury 14 (7-14)

newcastle-sm Newcastle 29 (5-16) d parramatta-sm Parramatta 10 (13-8)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 32 (14-7) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 10 (13-8)

st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 42 (11-10) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 16 (7-14)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 16 (17-4) d sydney city-sm Sydney City 13 (14-7)

penrith-sm Penrith 24 (12-9) d north qld-sm North Queensland 16 (12-9)

canberra-sm Canberra 36 (10-11) d warriors-sm New Zealand 16 (7-14)

wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 30 (6-15) d manly-sm Manly 26 (12-9)

Collated Ladder

Now to look ahead to see what the Collated Ladder has predicted for the final standings of the season.

Melbourne are currently sitting on sixteen wins and are projected to take eighteen. With three games to go and playing very well, that might be more like nineteen by the end of the regular season. Brisbane and Sydney City close out the top three spots, just as they do now. Both sides are going to stay at least four points off the pace.

The remaining spots are interesting. Penrith in the top four? They’re currently only two points off Cronulla, who are not playing well. Three wins for the Panthers and two for the Sharks would not be a surprising outcome. The Collated Ladder also has the Cowboys not far off the pace and there’s not much to separate them – Stocky wins and Pythag are very close for all three. Fourth place is very important as almost all of the premiership winners of the last twenty years have finished in the top four.

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NRL Tips – Round 23, 2017

It may surprise you to discover that this blog is actually fairly low on my list of priorities and when time’s tight, its always going to be the first to suffer so this isn’t going to be much of a post. With that in mind, this week’s games are looking like a re-run of round 20, where each game had a clear favourite. That weekend, seven from eight tips got up.

Round 23 offers more top eight match ups with the Roosters/Storm, Broncos/Sharks and Cowboys/Panthers going head-to-head. While you would expect 1st vs 2nd, 3rd vs 4th and 6th vs 8th to be tight, we’ve got the Storm, Broncos and Panthers well ahead of their rivals. In fact, the Jury was unanimous on every game except for Wests/Manly, where Euclid was the sole dissenting vote.

The favourites have an average odds of 2-to-1 of picking up the win. As I warned in round 20, you would expect to be correct in 5.2 games but still find upsets in 2.8 games. We’ll have to wait and see which games those are.

Draw

canterbury-sm Canterbury (7-13) @ souths-sm South Sydney (7-13)

newcastle-sm Newcastle (4-16) @ parramatta-sm Parramatta (13-7)

cronulla-sm Cronulla (13-7) @ brisbane-sm Brisbane (13-7)

gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast (7-13) @ st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra (10-10)

sydney city-sm Sydney City (14-6) @ melbourne-sm Melbourne (15-5)

north qld-sm North Queensland (12-8) @ penrith-sm Penrith (11-9)

canberra-sm Canberra (9-11) @ warriors-sm New Zealand (7-13)

manly-sm Manly (12-8) @ wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers (5-15)

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NRL Projections Update – Round 22, 2017

I’m running a bit short on time this week, so I’ll dispense with the usual round up of matches and dive straight into it.

Actually, I’ll take one moment to say that I watched five of the eight games on the weekend (missed the Saturday fixtures) and the Souths-Saints game was the best of the lot. It might be because my expectations were so low but that was a hell of a finish from the Bunnies.

Round 22 Results

parramatta-sm Parramatta 20 (13-7) d canterbury-sm Canterbury 4 (7-13)

souths-sm South Sydney 26 (7-13) d st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 24 (10-10)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 26 (15-5) d north qld-sm North Queensland 8 (12-8)

newcastle-sm Newcastle 26 (4-16) d warriors-sm New Zealand 10 (7-13)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 54 (13-7) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 0 (7-13)

canberra-sm Canberra 30 (9-11) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 12 (13-7)

manly-sm Manly 36 (12-8) d sydney city-sm Sydney City 18 (14-6)

penrith-sm Penrith 28 (11-9) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 14 (5-15)

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