NRL Tips – Round 20, 2017

Let’s be honest. This round doesn’t seem to offer much in the way of comedic potential and I use “comedic” in its loosest possible sense because I’m not actually funny. But I try hard and isn’t that really what life is about? No, it’s not. It’s about getting tips right.

Round 20 has eight lopsided meetings. Six of the eight are a pairing of a top eight team against a bottom eight team and the other two aren’t much chop either. To demonstrate, I will forgo the usual jocularity in favour of cold hard stats, just to drive the point home.

Having said that, with eight games at an average of 67% chance for each of the favourites, you’d expect around 2.5 upsets per round. I don’t see why round 20 would be any different because God himself has singled me out to not get a perfect round this year. It’s like a trial from the Bible but involving less infanticide.

The Manly-St George match-up is the only meeting of top half teams, even though the Dragons haven’t played like a top eight team in months and will shortly cease to be in finals contention. At the other end, the Panthers-Titans game is a meeting of bottom eight teams with both sides showing form: Penrith taking a win would make it three running and the Gold Coast would be four on the trot. If it buckets down in Penrith, maybe the Titans will slip-and-slide to victory.

I’ll go back to roasting crap teams next week but man, it’s not even worth doing for this weekend. They’ll suffer enough.


canterbury-sm Canterbury (7-10) @ brisbane-sm Brisbane (11-6)


  • Greeks: 70% average
  • Betting markets: 74%
  • tippers: 94%
  • Plus home ground advantage

newcastle-sm Newcastle (2-15) @ sydney city-sm Sydney City (12-5)


  • Greeks: 82% average
  • Betting markets: 87%
  • tippers: 97%
  • Plus home ground advantage

souths-sm South Sydney (6-11) @ cronulla-sm Cronulla (11-6)


  • Greeks: 66% average
  • Betting markets: 74%
  • tippers: 93%
  • Plus home ground advantage

gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast (7-10) @ penrith-sm Penrith (8-9)


  • Greeks: 62% average
  • Betting markets: 64%
  • tippers: 77%
  • Plus home ground advantage

melbourne-sm Melbourne (13-4) @ canberra-sm Canberra (7-10)


  • Greeks: 63% average
  • Betting markets: 69%
  • tippers: 88%
  • Plus Melbourne is just as cold as Canberra

warriors-sm New Zealand (7-10) @ north qld-sm North Queensland (11-6)

North Queensland

  • Greeks: 74% average
  • Betting markets: 74%
  • tippers: 96%
  • Plus home ground advantage

manly-sm Manly (11-6) @ st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra (9-8)


  • Greeks: 57% average
  • Betting markets: 60%
  • tippers: 75%
  • Plus Manly is just like Woollongong, just wealthier and snobbier

parramatta-sm Parramatta (10-7) @ wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers (4-13)


  • Greeks: 62% average
  • Betting markets: 74%
  • tippers: 90%
  • While it’s not a Parramatta home game, ANZ Stadium is in Parramatta


rd20-2017-round tips


I thought last round was going to be easier but no, it wasn’t really. I reckon I am a little too influenced by the Elo rating systems to be an independent tipster. Having said that, I’ve managed to pull well ahead of the tipping (Euclid) and form (Archimedes) systems but still behind class (Eratosthenes). I’m going to chalk that up to luck.

After round 19:

rd20-2017-correct tips