Tag Archives: wins

NRL Projections Update – Round 13, 2017

A good round for home teams with only the last fixture turning up a win for the visitors. I think the biggest surprise was the Panthers’ win over the Bulldogs. You might’ve tipped them but did you also pick the 38 point margin? I think not. I also missed the Roosters getting one over the Broncos, a very disappointing result for me and while I’m loathe to blame one player, Kahu is not exactly my favourite at the moment.

In other news, the Warriors, Knights and Tigers suck. The Titans, after a stellar April/May, have returned to what I guess everyone expected pre-season. They all have a lot of work to do to make the finals next year, let alone salvage anything from this season. Manly and Canberra went to golden point for the second time this season with the Sea Eagles coming out on top again.

Round 13 Results

melbourne-sm Melbourne 40 (10-2) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 12 (2-10)

parramatta-sm Parramatta 32 (7-6) d warriors-sm New Zealand 24 (4-9)

st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 16 (8-4) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 12 (3-9)

sydney city-sm Sydney 18 (9-4) d brisbane-sm Brisbane 16 (8-5)

north qld-sm North Queensland 20 (7-5) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 8 (4-8)

manly-sm Manly 21 (7-5) d canberra-sm Canberra 20 (6-7)

penrith-sm Penrith 38 (5-7) d canterbury-sm Canterbury 0 (5-8)

[Home team in italics]

Collated Ladder

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NRL Projections Update – Round 12, 2017

Well, I was in Sydney so I didn’t see a single minute of any of the short round of games. What I see on the scoresheet fundamentally reminds me that I know so little about this sport. I thought that, even weakened, the Roosters and the Broncos would be handy enough to take care of the Raiders and the Warriors but evidently not. The Warriors were barely troubled by the Broncos and the Raiders kept on top, just, of the Roosters. Cronulla managed to do right by me and edge out Canterbury but only did it late with a field goal to avoid golden point. Souths never seemed to be in it against Parramatta.

Round 12 Results

parramatta-sm Parramatta 22 (6-6) d souths-sm South Sydney 16 (4-8)

warriors-sm New Zealand 28 (4-8) d brisbane-sm Brisbane 10 (8-4)

cronulla-sm Cronulla 9 (9-3) d canterbury-sm Canterbury 8 (5-7)

canberra-sm Canberra 24 (6-6) d sydney city-sm Sydney 16 (8-4)

[Home team in italics]

Collated Ladder

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NRL Projections Update – Round 11, 2017

Last weekend saw a much more predictable round with teams, perhaps for the first time this season, actually sticking to the form book. In fact, there were no what I would call upsets. The favourites generally accounted for their opposition, particularly the Broncos shutting out the Tigers in Brisbane, the Dragons taking care of the Warriors in Hamilton and the Storm putting the Rabbitohs down in Perth. Cronulla, Canberra and Sydney City decided to make it a bit more difficult from themselves, either going behind early or letting their opponents back in late in the game, but managed to scrape across the line.

Round 11 Results

cronulla-sm Cronulla 18 (8-3) d north qld-sm North Queensland 14 (6-5)

st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 30 (7-4) d warriors-sm New Zealand 14 (4-7)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 36 (8-3) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 0 (3-8)

manly-sm Manly 30 (6-5) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 10 (4-7)

canberra-sm Canberra 22 (5-6) d parramatta-sm Parramatta 16 (5-6)

penrith-sm Penrith 30 (4-7) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 20 (2-9)

sydney city-sm Sydney 24 (8-3) d canterbury-sm Canterbury 18 (5-6)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 14 (9-2) d souths-sm South Sydney 6 (4-7)

[Home team in italics]

Collated Ladder

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NRL Projections Update – Round 10, 2017

What a round! High scoring, plenty of upsets and more than a few that went right down to the wire. It was the highest scoring round of the season. The Titans downed the Storm, the Knights downed the Raiders and the Panthers came from well behind – 22 points down at half time – to take down the Warriors. Cronulla managed to grind out a win over St George Illawarra, a side lacking in their usual stars, while North Queensland, another side lacking in star power, handily accounted for Canterbury in Townsville.

It was a crap round for my tipping, gaining just three from eight, but I don’t think I care. The Titans’ upsets and near-upsets have been my highlight of the season so far. A slight stumble for the Dragons and the Storm while the Sharks, Roosters and Broncos march on makes for interesting prospects.

Round 10 Results

north qld-sm North Queensland 30 (6-4) d canterbury-sm Canterbury 14 (5-5)

cronulla-sm Cronulla 18 (7-3) d st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 14 (6-4)

souths-sm South Sydney 28 (4-6) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 8 (3-7)

penrith-sm Penrith 36 (3-7) d warriors-sm New Zealand 28 (4-6)

gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 38 (4-6) d melbourne-sm Melbourne 36 (8-2)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 24 (7-3) d manly-sm Manly 14 (5-5)

newcastle-sm Newcastle 34 (2-8) d canberra-sm Canberra 20 (4-6)

sydney city-sm Sydney 48 (7-3) d parramatta-sm Parramatta 10 (5-5)

[Home team in italics]

Collated Ladder

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NRL Projections Update – Round 9, 2017

As I suggested in the Tips post, there were a few upsets this round but they weren’t the ones I was expecting. I said it was “hard to imagine” the Eels and Warriors getting up but they did, even if the Warriors were pretty lucky to get a last minute, and winning, penalty at the time and place they did. The Cowboys didn’t really look like they were in the same contest as the Eels, although I think any praise for Parramatta above “competent” was excessive (words like “clinical” and “on fire” against a team that is barely holding it together suggests a lack of perspective).

I did say I was nervous about the Bulldogs-Raiders game and I was right to be wary but the Sea Eagles had the biggest win in the second highest scoring round of the year (329 points, after 390 scored in round 2). It looked like going the same way at WIN Stadium on Sunday and at Suncorp Stadium on Thursday but the underdogs managed to claw back some respect on both occassions as the Storm and Broncos got out to big, early leads.

Round 9 Results

brisbane-sm Brisbane 32 (6-3) d penrith-sm Penrith 18 (2-7)

manly-sm Manly 46 (5-4) d souths-sm South Sydney 8 (3-6)

parramatta-sm Parramatta 26 (5-4) d north qld-sm North Queensland 6 (5-4)

gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 38 (3-6) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 8 (1-8)

canterbury-sm Canterbury 16 (5-4) d canberra-sm Canberra 10 (4-5)

cronulla-sm Cronulla 22 (6-3) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 16 (3-6)

warriors-sm New Zealand 14 (4-5) d sydney city-sm Sydney 13 (6-3)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 34 (8-1) d st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 22 (6-3)

[Home team in italics]

Collated Ladder

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NRL Projections Update – Round 8, 2017

The thing about probabilities is that people don’t deal with them intuitively very well. This very site rated the Sharks at a 79% chance of winning over the Titans. Sure enough, the Titans came up with the goods in well fought game over the reining premiers. While 79% made Cronulla heavy favourites, that means that we expected the Gold Coast to win once in every five times the game is played. Of course, we only play the game once so we can never tell how accurate this was but it’s still a lot more likely than you would naturally expect such a heavy favourite.

Over the last ten years, Euclid has predicted the outcome of the game correctly 61.5% of the time and the system has given the favourite an average chance of 61.0%, which I think means we have the probabilities dialled in pretty well – we rate an average favourite a 61% chance of the win and our favourites win 61% of the time.

So after a round with more than a few upsets, Melbourne move clear to the top of the ladder with somewhat close call over the Warriors. There’s a lot of congestion with a number of teams shuffling around with 5-3 and 4-4 records, which covers everyone from fourth to tenth. At the bottom of the ladder, the Gold Coast and Wests stepped up a gear to move clear of Newcastle but Penrith seem to be completely lost.

Round 8 Results

manly-sm Manly 20 (4-4) d canberra-sm Canberra 18 (4-4)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 25 (5-3) d souths-sm South Sydney 24 (3-5)

parramatta-sm Parramatta 18 (4-4) d penrith-sm Penrith 12 (2-6)

north qld-sm North Queensland 24 (5-3) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 12 (1-7)

gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 16 (2-6) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 12 (5-3)

wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 18 (3-5) d canterbury-sm Canterbury 12 (4-4)

sydney city-sm Sydney 13 (6-2) d st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 12 (6-2)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 20 (7-1) d warriors-sm New Zealand 14 (3-5)

[Home team in italics]

Projected Wins

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NRL Projections Update – Round 7, 2017

Given that round 7 didn’t finish until Monday night, I couldn’t get the updated projections out until they’d actually finished playing. Being Tuesday, we’ll skip the updated ratings post and will do the same again next week when the projections update will come out Tuesday night after the ANZAC Day games.

This week though, we see the impact of wins that Euclid loves and wins that Euclid doesn’t rate. The Dragons’ and Broncos’ wins were too close for Euclid with 2 and 6 point wins for what were heavily backed favourites. In contrast, the Sharks’ dismantling, sloppy though it may have been, of the Panthers was well received by Euclid. The Dragons lost 30 rating points of their projected end of season rating, Brisbane lost nearly 50 and Cronulla gained 60. Big moves that were mirrored in their opponents’ ratings and consequently, their projected results.

Round 7 Results

canterbury-sm Canterbury 24 (4-3) d souths-sm South Sydney 9 (3-4)

sydney city-sm Sydney 24 (5-2) d newcastle-sm Newcastle 6 (1-6)

brisbane-sm Brisbane 24 (4-3) d gold coast titans-sm Gold Coast 22 (1-6)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 30 (6-1) d manly-sm Manly 26 (3-4)

canberra-sm Canberra 20 (4-3) d warriors-sm New Zealand 8 (3-4)

st george illawarra-sm St George Illawarra 28 (6-1) d north qld-sm North Queensland 22 (4-3)

cronulla-sm Cronulla 28 (5-2) d penrith-sm Penrith 2 (2-5)

parramatta-sm Parramatta 26 (3-4) d wests tigers-sm Wests Tigers 22 (2-5)

[Home team in italics]

Projected Wins

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