Some interesting matchups this round. The usually highly fancied Cowboys are facing off against the Dragons and the guys with the early form, the Sea Eagles, are taking on the Storm, who are probably looking to right the wrongs of a poor performance against the Sharks. At the other end of the ladder, the Tigers-Eels game is surely a contest of the least worst team, both coming in with 2-4 records. Two matchups of teams on 3-3 should sort the midfield out a little after this round.
The ELO models had a bit of a rough round 6, not seeing the surprises coming. I didn’t fare much better but at least my percentage didn’t go down. The gap from me to Eratosthenes is stable but I’ve extended slightly over the other two.
After round 6:
South Sydney (3-3) @ Canterbury (3-3)
Sydney (4-2) @ Newcastle (1-5)
Gold Coast (1-5) @ Brisbane (3-3)
Melbourne (5-1) @ Manly (3-3)
New Zealand (3-3) @ Canberra (3-3)
North Queensland (4-2) @ St George Illawarra (5-1)
Cronulla (4-2) @ Penrith (2-4)
Wests Tigers (2-4) @ Parramatta (2-4)
Consensus amongst the Greeks and myself seems quite strong this round. The Broncos-Titans fixture seems to be one of the most sure things this season, rated at about 75% chance of a Broncos victory. Canterbury should just nudge it home over South Sydney thanks to home field advantage.
There are some disagreements. Eratos rates the Cowboys more highly than the Dragons thanks to their superior history but without JT and with a couple of lacklustre games against the Tigers, Sea Eagles and the Titans, the Cowboys’ form may not be there for them to take down the league leaders.
I’m backing the Tigers over the Eels, even though the Eels are better rated by all three models (and bookmakers), solely because backing the Eels earlier in the season burnt me quite badly in my work tipping competition and I think a new coach and a solid victory over the Cowboys last week might be enough to fire the Tigers up and over the line. Plus you can’t get back into a competition by not taking the occasional risk on an upset.
The other favourites are Roosters, Storm, Raiders and Sharks.