NRL Tips – Round 11, 2017
Round 10 had up and downs with a couple of surprises, a couple of line balls and a few dead certs coming through. Unfortunately, we were on the wrong end of almost all of them.
It was a rough round for everyone except for Eratosthenes, who managed five from eight. Euclid and I scored a measly three and with the form book being thrown out the window, Archimedes got just one correct tip.
With ten rounds having been played, the Greeks might get their acts together and get above 50%. A couple of 5 form 8 rounds would do it. Me, I want to get above 56% at least for some self-respect but I’m not betting on it. The only thing to bet on, apparently, is class.
After round 10:
North Queensland (6-4) @ Cronulla (7-3)
St George Illawarra (6-4) @ New Zealand (4-6)
Wests Tigers (3-7) @ Brisbane (7-3)
Manly (5-5) @ Gold Coast (4-6)
Canberra (4-6) @ Parramatta (5-5)
Penrith (3-7) @ Newcastle (2-8)
Sydney (7-3) @ Canterbury (5-5)
Melbourne (8-2) @ South Sydney (4-6)
I’m instituting a new policy: never tip Western Sydney sides. When I do, they lose. Compare last round’s performances from the Bulldogs and Tigers to that of the Panthers (the Eels did the right thing and laid down and accepted the inevitable from the Roosters).
This leads to first for the season: I’m tipping the Knights. Even though the Knights are at home and the Greeks are going for the Panthers, policy is policy. I don’t care that Penrith flogged Newcastle 40-0 two months ago. Even though the Knights just beat the Raiders and have beaten the Titans this year, I would still tip the oppo in the return leg but not this time. Fingers crossed.
In other improving cellar dwellers, the Titans have the backing of the jury in front of a home crowd to take down the Sea Eagles. There will be no Trbojevic to cause havoc and hopefully Cherry-Evans stays on his feet this week. The Titans have taken three wins in four weeks, including two top scalps and nearly adding the Broncos to that list.
Last weekend’s loss to Newcastle should be the wake up call that Canberra needed. They’ve been sliding from a very strong finish last season to heaps of potential this season to becoming one of the also-rans. My “No Western Sydney” policy leads me to tip the Raiders but the Greeks have all gone for the Eels.
Expecting Melbourne, Cronulla, Sydney, St George Illawarra and Brisbane (77% average over Wests!) to account for their opposition without too much trouble, although the way this season is going, at least one will probably fall over. I think the Sharks are the most likely candidate, going up against a (hopefully) resurgent Cowboys and not having a great record at home.