NRL Projections Update – Finals Wk 1, 2017

This is the last projections update for the year. It’s come around so fast.

While I realise there’s still three weeks of finals left, in reality there’s three games left after next weekend. The Stocky is not great at dealing with small sample sizes of games, as evidenced by its relative lack of performance towards the year’s end, so its a little pointless doing it any further this year. I might tweet something instead. Let’s also ignore the fact that the Storm are unbackable favourites at the moment.

The projections will be back next year, rebranded and tarted up, and the tips posts will continue until I sign off sometime after grand final day.

sydney city-sm Sydney City 24 (17-7) d brisbane-sm Brisbane 22 (16-8)

melbourne-sm Melbourne 18 (20-4) d parramatta-sm Parramatta 16 (16-8)

penrith-sm Penrith 22 (13-11) d manly-sm Manly 10 (14-10)

north qld-sm North Queensland 15 (13-11) d cronulla-sm Cronulla 14 (15-9)

Finals Matrix

The (normal) Stocky can give us the probability of specific season outcomes so you can see how your team is tracking to win the minor premiership, make the finals or avoid the wooden spoon.

The below table shows the likelihood of each team being eliminated in a given round of the finals based on a modified, finals-specific Stocky. Teams with a line through them have already been eliminated.


The loss for the Broncos to the Roosters, who had a pretty bad rating, has knocked them down in the ratings, below that of Penrith. Euclid now has the Panthers as favourites, if you ignore home ground advantage. I think we would all book Brisbane as the likely winner in reality. If either team make it to the preliminary final, they’re pushing it uphill if they think they can get past the Storm so winning here is really just an opportunity to lose next week.

Euclid also as the Eels as favourites in their game in which, let’s be honest, the Cowboys would need a miracle to win here. Then again, it took a miracle for them to get this far and North Queensland are at risk of Steven Bradbury-ing their way to a grand final. Somebody will stop them at some point but Parramatta can still be inconsistent so an upset cannot be ruled out.

The Roosters are still considered a below par team. The Stocky has them pegged for elimination in the preliminary final – irrespective of who they play but likely to be the Eels – and at a massive disadvantage in the grand final should they make it that far.

Melbourne’s performance on the weekend cost them 70-odd rating points, bringing them down to merely being two standard deviations ahead of the mean, instead of close to three. They are slightly less likely to win than we considered last week but still have an overwhelming advantage.

Most Likely Pathway

  • Eliminated – Cronulla; Manly
  • Semi – Parramatta d North Queensland; Penrith d Brisbane
  • Preliminary – Melbourne d Penrith; Parramatta d Sydney
  • Grand Final – Melbourne d Parramatta