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Pythago NRL

Rugby league Elo models, player ratings and statistics

Category: Analysis & Opinion

A study in rugby league mortality

We’re talking about the clubs, not actual people, so it probably won’t be as depressing as the title implies. This started out as an examination of which rugby league club could claim to be the best expansion team, in the same vein as the Vegas Golden Knights who disputed the NHL’s Stanley Cup in their… Read More A study in rugby league mortality

June 11, 2018June 29, 2018 pythagonrl

Gauging the 2018 State of Origin teams – Game I

For the first time in a long time, it looks like we may have a well balanced Origin season. Indeed, the balance may even be a little Blue for my liking but when three of the last generation’s four best players retire from representative football, and they all happened to play for the same state,… Read More Gauging the 2018 State of Origin teams – Game I

May 29, 2018June 11, 2018 pythagonrl

The Dally Ms are a wank, let’s use StatScore instead

Let’s get it done off the bat: Ruan Sims didn’t follow the rules. She had to be at the game and she wasn’t. I don’t blame her. It was a punish of a game to have to sit through for anyone other than Eels fans. I don’t think the actual votes cast are going to… Read More The Dally Ms are a wank, let’s use StatScore instead

May 1, 2018June 13, 2018 pythagonrl

Which 2018 NRL halves combo is working best?

StatScore, a player rating tool I developed over the off-season, feels like something powerful but I haven’t had a real chance to use it yet. Thanks to Fox League posting individual player stats, I can at least keep updating the scores through 2018 which I was worried I wouldn’t be able to. But here we… Read More Which 2018 NRL halves combo is working best?

April 17, 2018May 1, 2018 pythagonrl

How thirsty is your city for a premiership?

Last week, we took a look at estimating the number of premierships we expected NRL teams to have won versus the number of premierships they actually won. This was spurred by a Twitter query from AFL fan, Bill (whose name I don’t remember and won’t be searching for), who asked the same question of someone… Read More How thirsty is your city for a premiership?

March 20, 2018April 17, 2018 pythagonrl

How many NRL premierships should your team have won?

If you’re the Eels, probably a lot more than zero. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Around the start of the finals last year, The Arc posted the probabilities of each finalist winning the AFL grand final. Some guy on Twitter (let’s call him Bill because I don’t remember who it was and I’m not… Read More How many NRL premierships should your team have won?

March 15, 2018March 20, 2018 pythagonrl

One thing new NRL fans need to know about each team

Last year’s Rugby League World Cup introduced the sport to a lot of new potential fans around the world. If anyone in rugby league administration could see past their nose, they’d be trying to win over these new converts to the game’s top competition: the National Rugby League. The 2018 season starts this week and… Read More One thing new NRL fans need to know about each team

March 6, 2018December 17, 2018 pythagonrl

A Complete History of the NRL

Two weeks ago, you may have (but almost certainly did not) read my Complete History of the NRL: Nerd Edition. Actually, there wasn’t much to read in the way of words and for those who aren’t so inclined to dealing with Elo ratings, Pythagorean expectation and counting premierships, possibly because you’re an Eels fan and… Read More A Complete History of the NRL

February 28, 2018March 12, 2018 pythagonrl

A deep dive for each NRL team’s 2018 season

The only thing more reliable than March bringing rugby league back is the slew of season previews that each and every media outlet feels the need to produce. I’m no different in this regard and here is what is likely to be the longest post I’ve ever compiled. This year’s season preview takes a look… Read More A deep dive for each NRL team’s 2018 season

February 21, 2018March 8, 2018 pythagonrl

A Complete History of the NRL (nerd edition)

Last year, I did a report on each NRL club featuring a bit of history, a few statistics and some graphs. The series didn’t do super well in terms of clicks but also didn’t take a lot of effort to produce. One thing I did enjoy putting together were the class graphs. These use a… Read More A Complete History of the NRL (nerd edition)

February 14, 2018March 6, 2018 pythagonrl

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