Category Archives: Tips

NRL Tips – Round 4, 2019

The photo below is unrelated to this week’s tips (except for the first one). The NRLW doesn’t start for months. Well, that of course assumes

  • that the crippling $400,000 per season that it costs to run a women’s team isn’t too big a burden for the biggest clubs in the competition that are supported by an annual grant from the NRL of $13 million
  • the clubs remember that their raison d’etre is playing football
  • the attendance at a free game of AFL doesn’t crush all other women’s sport in this country because what would be the point of continuing in the face of 53,000 people turning up to an event?

I mean, we could go on about how the AFLW had inferior ratings, inferior average attendances and offers no opportunities for representative footy compared to the NRLW but that would be petty #codewarz garbage. Why would anyone waste their time with that?

Now let’s get back to expansion and relocation. How anyone written anything about that lately? My plan is…

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NRL Tips – Round 3, 2019

It’s very early days in the 2019 premiership but injuries seem to be taking their toll early. Medial collateral ligaments have replaced syndesmosis as the blessure du jour. We haven’t even seen Kyle Feldt or Wade Graham yet and now we’re missing the likes of Jason Taumalolo, Tyson Frizell, Ash Taylor and Brett Morris.

For our tipping purposes, the obvious place these major outs would be noted is in xPPG, which tracks the personnel named on Team Sheet Tuesday and forms a tip based on their previous performances as measured in terms of Production Per Game.

This week, we see teams rated on a range from 25.0 to 31.5, which is a variation of 25% across the entire league. Interestingly, unless teams are particularly close, a major in or out at a key position might still not be enough to shift the tip. Cronk missed a game for the Roosters last week, taking about 10% of the team’s expected production with him. Even if his replacement, Lachlan Lam, had also missed the game, xPPG still would have tipped Sydney over Manly. That would later prove to be correct, even though Lam did end up having a pretty average game in production terms (that’s pretty good for a first timer though).

In the medium term, though, we’ll see some of these absences reflect themselves in changes in form ratings, with potential to surprise on the upside, like Jake Clifford did for the Cowboys last year, as well as downside risks, e.g. Ryley Jacks coming in for Ash Taylor at the Titans. In the longer term, this will also be reflected in Poseidon ratings as teams improve/struggle to score/defend. I update the ratings every Monday here, which might be worth keeping an eye on to get a relatively objective sense of the magnitude of these outs.

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NRL Tips – Round 2, 2019

I mentioned during last week’s tips that the rating systems take a while – give or take six weeks – to dial in to a new season. I was asked during the week what the Jury’s tipping rates look like across the year. I thought that was a good question, so I looked into it:

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This is just for the unanimous Jury verdicts but I think we’d see a similar pattern across all of the metrics or voting combinations. As you can see, we start out pretty wobbly but come storming home towards the back end of the season. Your own tipping rates probably aren’t too dissimilar.

It’s also worth pointing out that, while 56% is a bit better than a coin flip, it’s also about par for the average home team winning rate. Since the NRL began in 1998 to the end of the 2018 regular season, the home team won 2,294 out of 4,012 games or 57.1%. That rate has dropped noticeably over the last years to just 55.7% or 535 wins in 960 starts.

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NRL Tips – Round 1, 2019

But first, a refresher

This year I’m going to be providing tips for each round of the NRL and the ISC using four mathematical rating systems. None of the four metrics rely on subjective human assessments and instead, each rating system takes in cold, hard numbers and spits out tips.

While each tool has a useful predictive track record (some are better than others), they are unlikely to outperform the best human tipsters. However, the systems are also not subject to the cognitive biases that people naturally develop and can offer insights that might otherwise be overlooked.

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ISC Tips – Round 1, 2019

Footy’s back, baby! You know, if you don’t count Super League (#COYW awwwoouuu). Anyway, the Intrust Super Cup returns for another year of gritty Queensland/somewhat international rugby league action.

I had intended to write a season preview for the QCup but I had a few problems with it. One was a lack of time, another was a lack of insight to offer. Then there was the preview from The Gurgler, which was pretty much a good reflection of my thinking. And I mean, exactly, because even the bits of the season preview I had written are reflected in their preview. It’s a little scary actually.

So I moved directly on to tipping. The format is a little different this year but I hope you enjoy the improved graphics and extra team metrics (you can read about PPG and Poseidon) in lieu of the jokey-analysis-words that I use to provide.

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NRL Tips – Round 25, 2018

And we made it. It’s last the tips post for 2018. I plan to do a finals preview, once the top eight is actually decided, and maybe one more recap and then that’s it for a while.

Let’s not delay then and get into it.

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NRL Tips – Round 24, 2018

We’re in the penultimate round of the regular season and can definitely feel the approaching finals footy. There’s still some unfinished business to be resolved, specifically ensuring that the Tigers finish ninth as they are destined to do until the heat death of the universe, or maybe when Jeremy Marshall-King’s backended contract at the Bulldogs forces a transfer to Wests and history can try to repeat with the lesser relative. Or maybe they will have to wait until Benji’s and Robbie’s kids grow up?

In the meantime, my tipping has gone to crap so maybe you should ignore me and go with the Greeks.

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