At this time of year, is there anything else you want to know more than the answer to this question? For our crystal ball, we turn to Monte Carlo simulations. These simulations work on the principle that if we know the inputs to a complex system and how they relate to each other, then we… Read More Who will win the 2019 NRL Premiership?
Over the last month, we’ve been looking at rating players using a metric called Production Per Game, or PPG. We’ve used it to find players at the higher end, justifying million dollar salaries, and at the lower end, identifying fringe first graders. The tricky thing about rating players is determining what information from the past… Read More The Art of Projection
I wrote about Sydney as an obstacle to expansion yesterday. It started as an intro to this post but ended up being over 1000 words and I thought it should stand alone. It’s the result of thoughts that have been bubbling since I started paying proper attention to rugby league when I started doing this… Read More NRL Tips – Round 25, 2019
Another week, another expansion bone has been tossed to the ravenous dogs that are NRL nerds on social media to endlessly chew over. I say that like I wasn’t in there first and not still gnawing on it. I just can’t help myself. This week, the target was the south-east Queensland expansion team dropped into… Read More On Expansion and its relationship with Sydney
Some additional rugby league reading for you: With two rounds left in the #NRL, it's pretty much a four horse race with two clear favourites (no surprises). The bottom two could be swapped for any of the teams in contention and it probably wouldn't matter much overall. pic.twitter.com/plb9bBm9JL — Liam (@pythagoNRL) August 26, 2019 And… Read More NRL Tips – Round 24, 2019
Apologies for there not being any tips last week. I was in Perth. And before you start with your jokes, especially when a bunch of you go to the Nines next year: HuR DuR wE sHoUlD rElOcAtE a TeAm ThErE Actually, we should relocate two there. Perth Sharks. Fremantle Sea Eagles. Friday 10PM games every… Read More NRL Tips – Round 23, 2019
Last week we looked at valuing players, specifically Tom Trbojevic, Daly Cherry-Evans and Addin Fonua-Blake, by their contributions to Manly’s winning ways. There were two problems though: How do we deal with someone like Marty Taupau? He’s played all of the games this year so we can’t find an understudy to compare him to. What if… Read More Rugby league’s replacement player
It was a relatively quiet week for odd rugby league news, so here’s some analytics you might not have seen (mostly from me, yes): Elo ratings NRL Round 20 via @pythagoNRL pic.twitter.com/vXCm7ZNEdB — Keith Lyons (@520507) August 5, 2019 We've launched the newest tool in our free suite of @StatsInsider analytical tools – the SI… Read More NRL Tips – Round 21, 2019
“He’s not worth a million a year!” -NRL Twitter proverb The trick in any sport is spending your available bankroll wisely. Soccernomics established that good soccer managers, among other things, bought players low and sold them high and that was at the heart of prolonged success. Moneyball was a two hour long movie with Brad Pitt… Read More What makes a million dollar NRL player?
I’ll spare you the lengthy and moderately pompous words I had written about cheating. The last week has been dominated by refs faulting to a sickening degree and to a lesser extent, the lack of appreciation of Super League on the Gold Coast. The announcement of St Helens coach Justin Holbrook as the Titans new… Read More NRL Tips – Round 20, 2019
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