Over the off-season, I created a ranking system for every-ish rugby league club in the world and updating the rankings for the 2020 season would be an opportune time to reflect on the year that’s been. However, it seems like that this act of statistical hubris has angered the gods so much they gave us… Read More The Year in Rugby League Football, 2020
If you’re not interested in how the rankings work and just want to see the outputs, click here. It began as a simple exercise to try and rate Super League players, much in the way that I rate NRL and Queensland Cup players. It turns out that the Super League website makes that an impossible… Read More Ranking every rugby league team in the world
With the first Maori versus Indigenous All-stars game and another edition of the World Club Challenge in the history books, our attention turns to the NRL season ahead. As with last year, I’m going to do a SWOP – Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Prospect – analysis for each team. My general philosophy for judging a team’s… Read More A deep dive for each team’s 2019 NRL season
Using the same format I used during the rep weekend, this is the finals preview-ish post. I didn’t get to do all the analysis I wanted to because I’ve run out of time. By the time this gets published, I should be somewhere in or around California starting my honeymoon, which I think should probably… Read More Stats of Six: Is 2018 the worst top eight in NRL finals history?
For the first time in a long time, it looks like we may have a well balanced Origin season. Indeed, the balance may even be a little Blue for my liking but when three of the last generation’s four best players retire from representative football, and they all happened to play for the same state,… Read More Gauging the 2018 State of Origin teams – Game I
The only thing more reliable than March bringing rugby league back is the slew of season previews that each and every media outlet feels the need to produce. I’m no different in this regard and here is what is likely to be the longest post I’ve ever compiled. This year’s season preview takes a look… Read More A deep dive for each NRL team’s 2018 season
The Stocky is the main forecasting tool driving the analysis on this site. It’s a simulator of the season ahead, using the Monte Carlo method and based on Elo ratings, that gives insight into the future performance of each club. My main interest has been the number of wins, as it determines ladder positions which in… Read More Analysis – Stocky vs Reality: Did your team outperform? (Pt II)
The Stocky is the main forecasting tool driving the analysis on this site. It’s a simulator of the season ahead, using the Monte Carlo method and based on Elo ratings, that gives insight into the future performance of each club. My main interest has been the number of wins, as it determines ladder positions which in… Read More Analysis – Stocky vs Reality: Did your team outperform? (Pt I)
Most rugby league commentators wouldn’t know what a linear regression is or how do one. I’m no different but I do like to compare two variables and see if they’re correlated. A scatter plot with a linear trendline and an R-squared – remember R-squared goes from 0, no correlation, to 1, perfect correlation; I usually… Read More Analysis – The more competitive the season, the more bums on seats
The short answer is yes and no. Yes, the NRL is more competitive now than when it started but no, it doesn’t seem to be a thing that improves consistently year-on-year. Let me explain. On this blog, we use Elo ratings to measure teams’ performances and assess each team’s probability of winning a game in… Read More Analysis – Is the NRL getting more competitive?