This is a real headscratcher of a round. Enough crap teams have recently found some form in the bottom of the barrel so they can at least go into pre-season training with a semblance of self-esteem. It also means that they are playing better than the teams whose season is actually on the line. The top teams are starting to rest players (Storm rested Cronk last week, Kahu is off this week for the Donkeys) which makes it even harder to call. As if I haven’t suffered enough this year.

Draw

 Parramatta (14-8) @  Brisbane (15-7)

As the old song says “Thursday night’s a mediocre night for football.” But the game’s in Brisbane which means about four Sydney games’ worth of people will turn up.

Parramatta won this fixture not that long ago. If I do my maths correctly, it was actually only five weeks ago but 89% of people on footytips.com.au are tipping Brisbane. Why? Because even nefarious and immoral teams like the Eels get lucky against brave and honest teams like the Broncos.

I may have been reading too much of the Courier Mail lately.

The Broncos have been playing out of their skin, scoring points like no one’s business. Their defence is less solid but it won’t matter because Parra’s attack isn’t that great (6th lowest ‘for’ and only put 30 past the Titans last week) and while their defence is good enough, it’s not good enough to stop the Boyd/Milford/Nikorima/Hunt show that’s been doing the rounds the last few weeks. Broncos to take the two. Read more

Only three games to go. There are a couple of finals places still up for grabs, as well as the all important wooden spoon battle, which is proving to be more inspirational than wondering which big market team is going to finish where in the top four.

Draw

 Gold Coast (7-14) @  Parramatta (13-8)

While the Gold Coast melts down over whether they’ll keep their coach or their “star” fullback/centre or boot both or neither, Parramatta have had to spend a week of soul searching after a devastating loss to Newcastle – probably the worst side to play this decade – brought their six game winning streak to a grinding halt.

The question is: Will Parramatta recover? I almost think it’s irrelevant what the Eels do. The real question is: do the Titans even bother to show up or will they follow their erstwhile leader’s example and half ass it? I’m expecting three-quarter ass tops, so the Eels should be able to recover and get their finals campaign on track.

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It may surprise you to discover that this blog is actually fairly low on my list of priorities and when time’s tight, its always going to be the first to suffer so this isn’t going to be much of a post. With that in mind, this week’s games are looking like a re-run of round 20, where each game had a clear favourite. That weekend, seven from eight tips got up.

Round 23 offers more top eight match ups with the Roosters/Storm, Broncos/Sharks and Cowboys/Panthers going head-to-head. While you would expect 1st vs 2nd, 3rd vs 4th and 6th vs 8th to be tight, we’ve got the Storm, Broncos and Panthers well ahead of their rivals. In fact, the Jury was unanimous on every game except for Wests/Manly, where Euclid was the sole dissenting vote.

The favourites have an average odds of 2-to-1 of picking up the win. As I warned in round 20, you would expect to be correct in 5.2 games but still find upsets in 2.8 games. We’ll have to wait and see which games those are.

Draw

 Canterbury (7-13) @  South Sydney (7-13)

 Newcastle (4-16) @  Parramatta (13-7)

 Cronulla (13-7) @  Brisbane (13-7)

 Gold Coast (7-13) @  St George Illawarra (10-10)

 Sydney City (14-6) @  Melbourne (15-5)

 North Queensland (12-8) @  Penrith (11-9)

 Canberra (9-11) @  New Zealand (7-13)

 Manly (12-8) @  Wests Tigers (5-15)

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I struggled to get this post together. I must be running low on creative juices after what feels like a season that’s already been decided (Melbourne to win everything) but for some reason, we have to go through the formalities of playing the last few games. I propose we just lock the ladder positions now, go to the finals and wrap up a month early. Just in case the NRL isn’t listening to the fifteenth best non-podcast/non-gambling based blog, here’s how I think the round will go.

Draw

 Parramatta (12-7) @  Canterbury (7-12)

Tuesday’s front page of the Daily Telegraph means we all need to sympathise with Bulldogs fans as they get painted with the same brush as an alleged terrorist, a sentence you would never write in any other sport. It’s okay though because by the weekend, we’ll all be back to panning the Bulldogs’ terrible on-field performances.

Parramatta beat the Broncos last week, taking their streak to four wins on the trot. What utter bastards. Having been forced to watch Eels’ games lately, I’m not entirely convinced they’re the real deal, particularly defensively. That won’t matter this match because the Bulldogs are pathologically incapable of scoring points (and we’re back, baby). Parra will be able to run in the minimum fourteen points required and so the Eels will win.

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We’re getting down to the wire, with only a handful of rounds left to run until finals time. While the finals places may be more or less decided, unless you’re a Panthers or Eels fan, there’s still a lot to play for.

The better teams are looking to secure a pathway through the finals that doesn’t involve playing the Storm. The lesser teams are using their time constructively too. By planning Mad Monday activities six weeks in advance, I’m sure they can negotiate a discount at their venue of choice. There might also be some focus on next year and not sucking so much but that’s surely more of a coach problem than a player problem. Just ask Des Hasler.

Draw

 Canterbury (6-12) @  Penrith (9-9)

The Bulldogs have nothing left to play for. They were embarrassed by the Broncos last week, so they don’t even have pride left. There’s just an interminable series of six games left to go before they can go hide for a while and go back to whatever it is Canterbury players do in the off-time. I really don’t want to know what that is.

Penrith are the only team currently outside the top eight that could conceivably still finish inside the warm embrace of finals contention. It’s an ask but they need to win games like this, even if it’s just to avoid the indignity of losing to this particular version of Canterbury. Seeing as the game plan recently has been “pass the ball to Nathan Cleary and get out of his goddamn way”, I think that will be as effective against the Bulldogs as it was against the Warriors, so I think Penrith will keep the home fans happy with a victory.

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Let’s be honest. This round doesn’t seem to offer much in the way of comedic potential and I use “comedic” in its loosest possible sense because I’m not actually funny. But I try hard and isn’t that really what life is about? No, it’s not. It’s about getting tips right.

Round 20 has eight lopsided meetings. Six of the eight are a pairing of a top eight team against a bottom eight team and the other two aren’t much chop either. To demonstrate, I will forgo the usual jocularity in favour of cold hard stats, just to drive the point home.

Having said that, with eight games at an average of 67% chance for each of the favourites, you’d expect around 2.5 upsets per round. I don’t see why round 20 would be any different because God himself has singled me out to not get a perfect round this year. It’s like a trial from the Bible but involving less infanticide.

The Manly-St George match-up is the only meeting of top half teams, even though the Dragons haven’t played like a top eight team in months and will shortly cease to be in finals contention. At the other end, the Panthers-Titans game is a meeting of bottom eight teams with both sides showing form: Penrith taking a win would make it three running and the Gold Coast would be four on the trot. If it buckets down in Penrith, maybe the Titans will slip-and-slide to victory.

I’ll go back to roasting crap teams next week but man, it’s not even worth doing for this weekend. They’ll suffer enough.

Draw

 Canterbury (7-10) @  Brisbane (11-6)

Brisbane

• Greeks: 70% average
• Betting markets: 74%
• Footytips.com.au tippers: 94%
• Plus home ground advantage

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