In my previous primer on Elo ratings, I talked about different ways of calculating Elo ratings with a view of measuring form and/or class. This primer will look in a bit more depth at how I arrived at the specific numbers for the variables. The main variables in an Elo model are: Starting ratings (discrete… Read More Primer – What variables do the Elo models use?
Part of the regular posting will include weekly updates on the ELO model ratings coming out of Euclid (best predictor), Archimedes (short term form) and Eratosthenes (long term class). If you want Thales or Hipparchus, you only have to ask. Unlike the Projections, I’m not sure I’ll bother going back to do rounds 1-4. Here they… Read More NRL ELO Ratings Update – Round 5, 2017
It’s taken a while longer than I thought to get this going but here we are with the first post projecting the future of the 2017 season. The projections will be updated after each round on Monday. Round 5 Results Canterbury 10 (2-3) d Brisbane 7 (2-3) Manly 18 (3-2) d Sydney 12 (4-1) North Queensland 20 (4-1)… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 5, 2017
Short answer: with a lot of time spent in Excel and Google Sheets. Long answer: It depends on what you want to do. I introduced the Elo rating system in a previous primer. Now it’s time to put it to work. I think most sport’s fans would agree with the following definitions of form and class… Read More Primer – How do Elo models work?
Pythagorean expectation is the idea that you can calculate a team’s winning percentage based solely on its for and against. It originated with baseball nerds but, according to its Wikipedia article, has been adapted for other sports. It is also where the name of this site came from. Pythago is basically what Pythagoras would have been if… Read More Primer – What is a Pythagorean expectation?
Note: this was published on April 5 but backdated to the day it should have been posted. It will be plainly obvious that I did not change the tips to make me look better. “Success” Finally, getting slightly less ouchy. Draw
Note: post published on April 5 but backdated to suit the date it should have been posted. Round 4 Results Sydney 20 (4-0) d South Sydney 6 (2-2) Penrith 40 (2-2) d Newcastle 0 (1-3) Brisbane 13 (2-2) d Canberra 12 (1-3) Manly 36 (2-2) d Canterbury 0 (1-3) Cronulla 20 (2-2) d Parramatta 6 (2-2) North Queensland 32 (3-1) d Gold Coast 26 (1-3) Melbourne 22 (4-0) d Wests Tigers 14 (1-3) St George Illawarra 26… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 4, 2017
Note: this was published on April 5 but backdated to the day it should have been posted. It will be plainly obvious that I did not change the tips to make me look better. “Success” Ouchier. Draw
Note: post published on April 5 but backdated to suit the date it should have been posted. Round 3 Results Melbourne 14 (3-0) d Brisbane 12 (1-2) Canterbury 24 (1-2) d New Zealand 12 (1-2) Gold Coast 26 (1-2) d Parramatta 14 (2-1) South Sydney 24 (2-1) d Newcastle 18 (1-2) Sydney 14 (3-0) d Penrith 12 (1-2) Manly 30 (1-2) d North Queensland 8 (2-1) Canberra 46 (1-2) d Wests Tigers 6 (1-2) St… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 3, 2017
Note: this was published on April 5 but backdated to the day it should have been posted. It will be plainly obvious that I did not change the tips to make me look better. “Success” Ouch. Draw
Pythago NRL 