Tag Archives: super league

The coaches that fucked up your club

When a coach arrives at a major league club, fresh and excited to make his own mark in the history books, you’d have to think that, as a minimum threshold for success, he’d want to leave the place in better shape than when he arrived. Sometimes, the vagaries of reality make it difficult to assess a coach’s legacy but we can definitely ignore nuance and simplify things down to a nice looking line on a graph.

For this, we use Class Elo ratings. Over this kind of time frame, you can think of the rating as a glorified win-loss stock ticker. It goes up when the team wins and it goes down when the team loses. The rating goes up more for unexpected wins and goes down more for unexpected losses. Grand finals are weighted the heaviest, then finals and then regular season games. Challenge Cup results are included for Super League teams. You can see each team’s class Elo rating history for NRL and Super League.

This post compares different coaches at each club and see how they improved the club’s rating from their first game. I’ve included most, but not all of, the coaches for each club over the last two decades. Caretakers have generally been excluded. I used rugbyleagueproject.org (DONATE TO THE PATREON) to determine the extents of careers but it may not be 100% complete for coaching details and career lengths may be out by a few games. It is very hard to find out which round a coach was sacked from a club in 2003 if it’s not on RLP. 

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How will the Toronto Wolfpack go in Super League?

The Toronto Wolfpack made their Super League debut on the weekend. After three seasons in the lower divisions, the Wolfpack’s first game in Leeds against the Castleford Tigers resulted in a quasi-respectable but messy 28-10 loss.

Still, one result is one result and not necessarily informative on its own, disappointing though it may be. For those of us in favour of rugby league expansion, the threat of the Toronto Wolfpack being relegated at the end of the season is realistic and concerning. It would be a serious, possibly fatal, setback for the franchise. Toronto’s relegation would also push Super League further down in to the parochial quagmire that makes up the bulk of its ever-decreasing audience.

With so much hanging in the balance, will Toronto survive the 2020 Super League season?

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A Complete History of Super League

This article is about the northern hemisphere rugby league competition. For the short-lived southern hemisphere competition, see the League Digest podcast.

To complement the complete histories of the NRL and the Queensland Cup, I humbly present the complete history of the northern hemisphere Super League competition. I will also, at no charge to you, include abbreviated histories of the Championship (from 2007) and League 1 (from 2009). I would go further back but the official rugby league website does not have results back that far.

This being a website that predominantly deals in statistics, I don’t intend to describe the history in words but rather in graphs. Specifically, I will use Elo ratings to chart the paths of each club.

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I do two types of Elo ratings. Form is about the short term performance of clubs, and can represent anywhere from four to eight weeks of results (calculated on the points margin of each game) depending on the draw and league, while class is about long term performance, and can represent the average of years of performance, aggregating wins and losses with small rating changes. Form is a better predictor of match results, class is a better predictor of fan disappointment.

Normally, I treat each league as a self-contained entity, which operates with an average rating of 1500. For the RFL pyramid, I took a different tack and created one class rating system to span the Challenge Cup and the three leagues. The Challenge Cup rounds and finals are weighted the same as their league equivalents and teams carry their rating through promotion and relegation between the leagues. Super League teams start with a 1600 rating, Championship on 1300 and League 1 teams on 1000. Non-league teams are given a 750 rating for Challenge Cup purposes.

Here’s how each team sits going in to the 2020 season:

2020 RFL CLASS

If you want to see how your team’s history looks, you can jump ahead:

Super League

Championship

League 1

esl-shl St Helens

History of St Helens RFC

esl-wig Wigan

History of Wigan Warriors

esl-war Warrington

History of Warrington Wolves

esl-cas Castleford

History of Castleford Tigers

esl-hfc Hull FC

History of Hull FC

esl-lee Leeds

History of Leeds Rhinos

esl-sal Salford

History of Salford Red Devils

esl-cat Catalans

History of Catalan Dragons

esl-hud Huddersfield

History of Huddersfield Giants

esl-wak Wakefield Trinity

History of Wakefield Trinity

esl-hkr Hull Kingston Rovers

History of Hull Kingston Rovers

esl-tor Toronto

History of Toronto Wolfpack

rfl-ldn London Broncos

History of London Broncos

rfl-lei Leigh

History of Leigh Centurions

rfl-fea Featherstone

History of Featherstone Rovers

rfl-tls Toulouse Olympique

History of Toulouse Olympique

rfl-brd Bradford

History of Bradford Bulls

rfl-hal Halifax

History of Halifax RLFC

rfl-wid Widnes

History of Widnes Viking

rfl-yck York City

History of York City Knights

rfl-she Sheffield

History of Sheffield Eagles

rfl-bat Batley

History of Batley Bulldogs

rfl-whi Whitehaven

History of Whitehaven RLFC

rfl-old Oldham

History of Oldham Roughyeds

rfl-brd Dewsbury

History of Dewsbury Rams

rfl-swi Swinton

History of Swinton Lions

rfl-don Doncaster

History of Doncaster RLFC

rfl-bar Barrow

History of Barrow Raiders

rfl-wor Workington Town

History of Workington Town

rfl-ncl Newcastle

History of Newcastle Thunder

rfl-hns Hunslet

History of Hunslet RLFC

rfl-roc Rochdale

History of Rochdale Hornets

rfl-nwc North Wales

History of North Wales Crusaders

rfl-kei Keighley

History of Keighley Cougars

rfl-lds London Skolars

History of London Skolars

rfl-cov Coventry

History of Coventry Bears

rfl-wwr West Wales

History of South Wales_West Wales Raiders