We’re over half way into the Intrust Super Cup / Queensland Cup and it’s time to review how each team and player are performing. We’ll be looking at this using the following analytical tools:
- Form – Elo ratings that reflect short term performance.
- Production – The accumulation of valuable work on field, as measured by statistics that correlate with winning. Production is measured in Taylors.
- Disappointment Line – The minimum number of wins for the season to not be considered disappointing by fans, as calculated by the pre-season class (long term performance) Elo rating.
- 1st order wins – Pythagorean expectation calculated by points for and against.
- 2nd order wins – Pythagorean expectation calculated by SCWP.
There’s more detail at How It All Works.
I won’t be providing much analysis for individual teams or players, instead preferring to let you do the work for your favourite team or player with the context about how the tools work provided.
Comparing win percentage of the Disappointment Line, actual wins (0th), Pythagorean wins (1st) and 2nd order wins.
Note that the zero to one scale for winning percentage can make significant differences look minor; a .100 change in winning percentage is worth 1.9 wins at season’s end.
There’s no projections this year as we didn’t have any information from last season to work with.
Significant divergences between actual and Pythagorean wins are usually indicative of mean regression in future. That is, teams underperforming will improve their actual win percentage and vice versa so that the two numbers tend to converge. However, there’s always one or two that manage to avoid this convergence. We call them lucky/unlucky, depending on the direction that they miss and the ladder is currently a mess.
The outlook for each team:
- Actual wins understating year to date performance / potentially tending better – Blackhawks, Tigers, Jets, Cutters, Capras
- Actual wins overstating year to date performance / potentially tending worse – Wynnum, Devils, Tweed, Redcliffe, Pride
- Actual wins reflective of year to date performance – Falcons, Bears, Magpies, Hunters
For teams with less than .500 percentage, 2nd order wins is always better than actual wins and vice versa. The trick here is to not focus on this specific value per se but to look at it as a prediction for next year’s performance. The next season’s performance for most teams will fall within one standard deviation (plus/minus .130) of their 2nd order win percentage for this season.
Form Elo ratings at the end of 2020 and the end of round 11
1st Order Wins
Winning percentage estimated by Pythagorean expectation of actual points for and against
2nd Order Wins
Winning percentage estimated by Pythagorean expectation of SCWP for and against
Wins Above Reserve Grade
WARG is a volume stat that compares the total amount of valuable work done (production), when compared to a replacement level player (or fringe first grader in the vernacular) at that position, irrespective of the time on field. A replacement level player has 0 WARG. It’s interesting to correlate who is the top of this leaderboard and who has been promoted to the NRL this season.
2019 was topped by Harry Grant with 2.6 WARG. The career leader (2016 – now) is Jonathon Reuben with 7.8 WARG. The single season record holder is Scott Drinkwater in 2018 with 3.0 WARG.
Taylor Player Rating
TPR is a rate stat that compares the amount of valuable work done (production) per game, factoring in time on field, to the average player at that position. An average player has a rating of .100. Minimum 5 games need to be played to qualify for TPR.
The 2019 regular season was topped by Harry Grant with single season record TPR of .266. The career (2016 – now, regular season only, minimum 15 games) leaders is also Harry Grant with a TPR of .195.
2021 WARG by position
WARG as generated when the player is listed in that position so far this season.