This headline (the actual article is fine) from Tim Gore typified the attitude when the draw was released in November last year: Not only were the NRL never going to redo the draw, it speaks to the tendency that the they can do no right in the fans’ eyes (“Release the draw earlier! No, not that… Read More Season preview: who has the softest draw?
Can we predict a premiership winner from their Elo ratings? Obviously, yes. That’s what the Stocky is for and this site would pointless if this was not true. But what if we wanted to look into the future before a single game has been played? I think that the Elo ratings of premiership winning teams… Read More Predicting this year’s NRL premiership winner with class
Twitter follower, David Olsen, posed a question to me: Hey @pythagoNRL – some mates were wondering if the big screens at Allianz impacted goal kicker performance. You wouldn't happen to have data to calculate that and be bored enough to dig into that would you? 😉 — David Olsen (@DDsD) December 4, 2017 Apparently, I… Read More Does the big screen at Allianz Stadium cause goal kickers to miss?
To whom it may concern: The ancient Romans had an important position known as the Censor. Primarily, the role involved taking the census to maintain a list of citizens. There was also a moral component, ensuring that citizens acted in line with community expectations. Punishments were meted out for those who did not comply. I… Read More An open letter to the NRL
I mostly started this blog as something to occupy my brain when work was quiet. Pro tip: spreadsheets are a great way to cover up that you’re not working. I’d actually stopped watching rugby league closely around 2004 but had gone to a few games in the last few years, reigniting a spark somewhere in… Read More Signing off for 2017
It’s finals time! 😀#NRLFinals#NRL pic.twitter.com/HMwe1kuhA1 — NRL (@NRL) September 4, 2017 They may be all smiles now but come October, seven of these men will have failed in the quest to win the 2017 NRL premiership, joining the eight that have already been eliminated over the last few months. Let’s have a look at who… Read More Analysis – A deep dive into the 2017 NRL Finals
The Stocky is the main forecasting tool driving the analysis on this site. It’s a simulator of the season ahead, using the Monte Carlo method and based on Elo ratings, that gives insight into the future performance of each club. My main interest has been the number of wins, as it determines ladder positions which in… Read More Analysis – Stocky vs Reality: Did your team outperform? (Pt II)
The Stocky is the main forecasting tool driving the analysis on this site. It’s a simulator of the season ahead, using the Monte Carlo method and based on Elo ratings, that gives insight into the future performance of each club. My main interest has been the number of wins, as it determines ladder positions which in… Read More Analysis – Stocky vs Reality: Did your team outperform? (Pt I)
Most rugby league commentators wouldn’t know what a linear regression is or how do one. I’m no different but I do like to compare two variables and see if they’re correlated. A scatter plot with a linear trendline and an R-squared – remember R-squared goes from 0, no correlation, to 1, perfect correlation; I usually… Read More Analysis – The more competitive the season, the more bums on seats
The short answer is yes and no. Yes, the NRL is more competitive now than when it started but no, it doesn’t seem to be a thing that improves consistently year-on-year. Let me explain. On this blog, we use Elo ratings to measure teams’ performances and assess each team’s probability of winning a game in… Read More Analysis – Is the NRL getting more competitive?
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