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Pythago NRL

Rugby league Elo models, player ratings and statistics

One thing new NRL fans need to know about each team

Last year’s Rugby League World Cup introduced the sport to a lot of new potential fans around the world. If anyone in rugby league administration could see past their nose, they’d be trying to win over these new converts to the game’s top competition: the National Rugby League. The 2018 season starts this week and… Read More One thing new NRL fans need to know about each team

March 6, 2018December 17, 2018 pythagonrl

A Complete History of the NRL

Two weeks ago, you may have (but almost certainly did not) read my Complete History of the NRL: Nerd Edition. Actually, there wasn’t much to read in the way of words and for those who aren’t so inclined to dealing with Elo ratings, Pythagorean expectation and counting premierships, possibly because you’re an Eels fan and… Read More A Complete History of the NRL

February 28, 2018March 12, 2018 pythagonrl

A deep dive for each NRL team’s 2018 season

The only thing more reliable than March bringing rugby league back is the slew of season previews that each and every media outlet feels the need to produce. I’m no different in this regard and here is what is likely to be the longest post I’ve ever compiled. This year’s season preview takes a look… Read More A deep dive for each NRL team’s 2018 season

February 21, 2018March 8, 2018 pythagonrl

A Complete History of the NRL (nerd edition)

Last year, I did a report on each NRL club featuring a bit of history, a few statistics and some graphs. The series didn’t do super well in terms of clicks but also didn’t take a lot of effort to produce. One thing I did enjoy putting together were the class graphs. These use a… Read More A Complete History of the NRL (nerd edition)

February 14, 2018March 6, 2018 pythagonrl

Season preview: who has the softest draw?

This headline (the actual article is fine) from Tim Gore typified the attitude when the draw was released in November last year: Not only were the NRL never going to redo the draw, it speaks to the tendency that the they can do no right in the fans’ eyes (“Release the draw earlier! No, not that… Read More Season preview: who has the softest draw?

February 7, 2018March 1, 2018 pythagonrl

Predicting this year’s NRL premiership winner with class

Can we predict a premiership winner from their Elo ratings? Obviously, yes. That’s what the Stocky is for and this site would pointless if this was not true. But what if we wanted to look into the future before a single game has been played? I think that the Elo ratings of premiership winning teams… Read More Predicting this year’s NRL premiership winner with class

January 31, 2018February 21, 2018 pythagonrl

Primer – StatScore and Win Shares: rating NRL players

The biggest off-season story in the NRL was the transfers of Cooper Cronk from Melbourne to Sydney and then Mitchell Pearce from Sydney to Newcastle. From the Roosters’ perspective, for two players likely on similar pay packets, how did the Roosters decide one was better than the other? Then I wondered if it were possible… Read More Primer – StatScore and Win Shares: rating NRL players

January 25, 2018April 23, 2019 pythagonrl

Primer – How do the Indices work?

If you’re wired for numbers, like I am, it can be hard to deal with people’s feelings and understanding why they think the things that they do. That’s why I’ve decided to quantify the feelings a team generates into five distinct indices: Power, Hope, Panic, Fortune and Disappointment. Each index has two components. There’s a… Read More Primer – How do the Indices work?

January 23, 2018February 7, 2018 pythagonrl

Primer – Who are the Greeks? 2018 Edition

The Greeks is the collective name given to a series of Elo rating models for tracking performance of rugby league teams and forecasting the outcomes of games. I usually refer to them as if the philosopher himself was making the prediction, even though the Greeks have mostly been dead for a couple thousand years and… Read More Primer – Who are the Greeks? 2018 Edition

January 18, 2018January 31, 2018 pythagonrl

Primer – Introducing Pythago World Rankings

While the recent RLWC was on, I couldn’t help but notice that the RLIF had Scotland pegged as the world’s fourth best team. Scotland hadn’t won a game since 2014 and even that was against Ireland. Since then, they’d lost to Australia, England, Ireland, Wales and France. I also got frustrated because a fifteen second… Read More Primer – Introducing Pythago World Rankings

January 16, 2018March 5, 2018 pythagonrl

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