The thing about probabilities is that people don’t deal with them intuitively very well. This very site rated the Sharks at a 79% chance of winning over the Titans. Sure enough, the Titans came up with the goods in well fought game over the reining premiers. While 79% made Cronulla heavy favourites, that means that… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 8, 2017
Given that round 7 didn’t finish until Monday night, I couldn’t get the updated projections out until they’d actually finished playing. Being Tuesday, we’ll skip the updated ratings post and will do the same again next week when the projections update will come out Tuesday night after the ANZAC Day games. This week though, we… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 7, 2017
The Stocky, which is short for stochastic simulation, is a Monte Carlo simulation of the season using Elo modelling to work out what the outcome of that season might be. The basic premise of a Monte Carlo simulation is that if you have a few pieces of the puzzle, an idea of how they relate… Read More Primer – How does the Stocky work?
A couple of really, really big upsets in this week’s mix with the Sharks bringing the Storm’s unbeaten run to an end and the Tigers throwing the form guide out the window and taking down a lacklustre Cowboys outfit. The Dragons now top the table, matching the Storm’s 5-1 record. It’s very tight still with… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 6, 2017
In my previous primer on Elo ratings, I talked about different ways of calculating Elo ratings with a view of measuring form and/or class. This primer will look in a bit more depth at how I arrived at the specific numbers for the variables. The main variables in an Elo model are: Starting ratings (discrete… Read More Primer – What variables do the Elo models use?
It’s taken a while longer than I thought to get this going but here we are with the first post projecting the future of the 2017 season. The projections will be updated after each round on Monday. Round 5 Results Canterbury 10 (2-3) d Brisbane 7 (2-3) Manly 18 (3-2) d Sydney 12 (4-1) North Queensland 20 (4-1)… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 5, 2017
Elo ratings originated in chess as a way to rate different players. A player starts with a rating of 1500 by convention and then the rating goes up or down depending on whether the players wins or loses. The player’s rating will change proportionally to the rating of their opponent: if the player beats a very… Read More Primer – What are Elo ratings?
Note: post published on April 5 but backdated to suit the date it should have been posted. Round 4 Results Sydney 20 (4-0) d South Sydney 6 (2-2) Penrith 40 (2-2) d Newcastle 0 (1-3) Brisbane 13 (2-2) d Canberra 12 (1-3) Manly 36 (2-2) d Canterbury 0 (1-3) Cronulla 20 (2-2) d Parramatta 6 (2-2) North Queensland 32 (3-1) d Gold Coast 26 (1-3) Melbourne 22 (4-0) d Wests Tigers 14 (1-3) St George Illawarra 26… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 4, 2017
Note: post published on April 5 but backdated to suit the date it should have been posted. Round 3 Results Melbourne 14 (3-0) d Brisbane 12 (1-2) Canterbury 24 (1-2) d New Zealand 12 (1-2) Gold Coast 26 (1-2) d Parramatta 14 (2-1) South Sydney 24 (2-1) d Newcastle 18 (1-2) Sydney 14 (3-0) d Penrith 12 (1-2) Manly 30 (1-2) d North Queensland 8 (2-1) Canberra 46 (1-2) d Wests Tigers 6 (1-2) St… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 3, 2017
Note: post published on April 5 but backdated to suit the date it should have been posted. Round 2 Results Sydney 28 (2-0) d Canterbury 24 (0-2) Melbourne 26 (2-0) d New Zealand 10 (1-1) North Queensland 21 (2-0) d Brisbane 20 (1-1) Newcastle 34 (1-1) d Gold Coast 26 (0-2) South Sydney 38 (1-1) d Manly 18 (0-2) Cronulla 42 (1-1) d Canberra 16 (0-2) Penrith 36 (1-1) d Wests Tigers 2 (1-1)… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 2, 2017
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