Round 8 seemed to be a return to normal with a few upsets bringing us back to earth after a very successful Round 7. Round 9 will be more of the same with some even match-ups, including a top of the table clash between the Dragons and Storm on Sunday arvo and a questionable game… Read More NRL Tips – Round 9, 2017
The thing about probabilities is that people don’t deal with them intuitively very well. This very site rated the Sharks at a 79% chance of winning over the Titans. Sure enough, the Titans came up with the goods in well fought game over the reining premiers. While 79% made Cronulla heavy favourites, that means that… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 8, 2017
Round 8 does not offer too many difficult to judge matchups. For example, the two bottom teams are facing off against two in the top eight. Probably the most interesting game features the current ladder leaders, St George Illawarra, facing off against fourth placed Sydney City – their first real test of the season. Penrith might be able… Read More NRL Tips – Round 8, 2017
The Collated Ladder takes in two inputs: The projected number of wins for each club from the Stocky The projected number of wins for each club from Pythagorean expectations Put simply, the Collated Ladder is an average of these two numbers, with a 2:1 weighting towards the output of the Stocky, rounded to the nearest… Read More Primer – How does the Collated Ladder work?
Given that round 7 didn’t finish until Monday night, I couldn’t get the updated projections out until they’d actually finished playing. Being Tuesday, we’ll skip the updated ratings post and will do the same again next week when the projections update will come out Tuesday night after the ANZAC Day games. This week though, we… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 7, 2017
Some interesting matchups this round. The usually highly fancied Cowboys are facing off against the Dragons and the guys with the early form, the Sea Eagles, are taking on the Storm, who are probably looking to right the wrongs of a poor performance against the Sharks. At the other end of the ladder, the Tigers-Eels game… Read More NRL Tips – Round 7, 2017
The Stocky, which is short for stochastic simulation, is a Monte Carlo simulation of the season using Elo modelling to work out what the outcome of that season might be. The basic premise of a Monte Carlo simulation is that if you have a few pieces of the puzzle, an idea of how they relate… Read More Primer – How does the Stocky work?
As in round 5, the winners went up and the losers went down in all systems. The Raiders, Dragons, Sharks and the Storm are the highest rated teams, by varying leads and in different orders depending on the system. Amongst the biggest, less obvious losers are the Cowboys (now down 57 points in Euclid since… Read More NRL ELO Ratings Update – Round 6, 2017
A couple of really, really big upsets in this week’s mix with the Sharks bringing the Storm’s unbeaten run to an end and the Tigers throwing the form guide out the window and taking down a lacklustre Cowboys outfit. The Dragons now top the table, matching the Storm’s 5-1 record. It’s very tight still with… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 6, 2017
I am very skeptical that anything good can come of tipping from the ELO models and my record this year is testament to that. Before I get into it, I’d like to reiterate that I am no expert. Plainly. “Success” Eratos is, contrary to all common sense, showing the way forward this year. I, on… Read More NRL Tips – Round 6, 2017
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