I mentioned during last week’s tips that the rating systems take a while – give or take six weeks – to dial in to a new season. I was asked during the week what the Jury’s tipping rates look like across the year. I thought that was a good question, so I looked into it:… Read More NRL Tips – Round 2, 2019
But first, a refresher This year I’m going to be providing tips for each round of the NRL and the ISC using four mathematical rating systems. None of the four metrics rely on subjective human assessments and instead, each rating system takes in cold, hard numbers and spits out tips. While each tool has a… Read More NRL Tips – Round 1, 2019
Footy’s back, baby! You know, if you don’t count Super League (#COYW awwwoouuu). Anyway, the Intrust Super Cup returns for another year of gritty Queensland/somewhat international rugby league action. I had intended to write a season preview for the QCup but I had a few problems with it. One was a lack of time, another… Read More ISC Tips – Round 1, 2019
Turns out that StatScore didn’t pan out the way I had hoped. There were some conceptual errors but the biggest was that I wanted a measure of rate and a measure of volume and you can’t have one statistic that does both. It’s like having one number that meaningfully states that a boxer is both… Read More Primer – PPG and WARG
Poseidon ratings are a new team rating system for both the NRL and the Queensland Cup. For those who don’t have time to read 2000+ words, here’s the short version: the purpose of Poseidon ratings is to assess the offensive and defensive capabilities of rugby league teams in terms of the number of tries they… Read More Primer – Poseidon ratings
I had meant to do some wrap-up posts after I got back from my honeymoon but it felt like the moment had passed, being two or three weeks after the grand final, and I didn’t have much to say other than the navel gazing stuff that people really don’t care about it. This tweet sums… Read More What’s new in 2019
And we made it. It’s last the tips post for 2018. I plan to do a finals preview, once the top eight is actually decided, and maybe one more recap and then that’s it for a while. Let’s not delay then and get into it.
While I was sleeping off my Napa-headbutt-induced apoplexy (again), the Catalans Dragons, from Perpignan in the south of France, won the Challenge Cup at Wembley. They became the first non-English team to do so since the competition’s inception in 1896. It’s an amazing milestone in the game’s reconstruction in France and the slow globlisation of… Read More NRL Recap – Round 24, 2018
We’re in the penultimate round of the regular season and can definitely feel the approaching finals footy. There’s still some unfinished business to be resolved, specifically ensuring that the Tigers finish ninth as they are destined to do until the heat death of the universe, or maybe when Jeremy Marshall-King’s backended contract at the Bulldogs… Read More NRL Tips – Round 24, 2018
News came through yesterday that the All-Stars game is going to change from an Indigenous against the World format to an Indigenous Australia vs Maori NZ game. All I can say in response is, “Finally.” It makes a decision over who to support much more straightforward, allowing for some emotional investment in the game that’s… Read More NRL Recap – Round 23, 2018
Pythago NRL 