We’re about a third of the way through the Super League season (maybe? Depending on covid and weather, I suppose) and it’s time to review how each team and player are performing. We’ll be looking at this using the following analytical tools: Form – Elo ratings that reflect short term performance. Production – The accumulation… Read More 2021 Super League WIP Report
We’re over half way into the Intrust Super Cup / Queensland Cup and it’s time to review how each team and player are performing. We’ll be looking at this using the following analytical tools: Form – Elo ratings that reflect short term performance. Production – The accumulation of valuable work on field, as measured by… Read More 2021 Queensland Cup WIP Report
We’re just a bit over half way into the 2021 NRL season and it’s time to review how each team and player are performing. We’ll be looking at this using the following analytical tools: Form – Elo ratings that reflect short term performance. Production – The accumulation of valuable work on field, as measured by… Read More 2021 NRL WIP Report
It feels weird doing another Origin analysis so recently after the last one, a scant seven months ago, but here we are for another round of player analysis using statistical techniques, now including a significant amount of historical data, and Penrith bashing. Before that, I want to take a victory lap on this prediction from… Read More Diving into State of Origin 2021
People familiar with my philosophy will know that I put less stock in wins than most people. The binary nature – you either take everything or get nothing – means that a simple win-loss record is not a particularly nuanced and, unless you have a very long timeframe to work with, doesn’t necessarily reflect teams’… Read More Primer – SCWP
WCL is a means of estimating the probability of a team winning a rugby league match at a given point in the game. The WCL system finds all instances of a given margin at a given point in the game in that league and calculates how often a team in that position won the game.… Read More Primer – WCL
Previously in our “Peter V’landys sucks” series: **** At 10.25am on Thursday, 20 May 2021, the NRL issued a press release. The National Rugby League (NRL) today releases the below data of key football and fatigue related indicators in the game and corrects some misconceptions about the changes in the game over the last two… Read More This is getting embarrassing
You’ve read me wank on about the second Brisbane team, anti-siphoning legislation, Super League reform, the state of the international game, other sports, my usual critical schtick and award voting systems but now it’s time to talk about actual football. The numbers have been run, in largely the same fashion as last year, and the… Read More A Deep Dive in to the 2021 NRL season
Wait, haven’t we done this before? Absolutely, in a post that hasn’t aged super-well, I replaced the Dally Ms with the old player rating system to assess the best player in each season. That system has been improved upon with TPR and WARG, so the conclusions drawn there can be safely discarded. Today, I specifically… Read More The Dally Ms are a wank, let’s use…something else
It’s BiG bRaIn EsSaY week on pythagonrl.com. I’ve written a series of approximately 75% thought-out, unpolished essays about somewhat obvious and/or somewhat unhinged things that probably belong on The Roar but I’ve decided to use my own platform to get off my chest. I occassionally get the urge to write a grand unifying theory of… Read More Big brain essay #5: Do these guys actually know what they’re doing?
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