Last week, we took a look at estimating the number of premierships we expected NRL teams to have won versus the number of premierships they actually won. This was spurred by a Twitter query from AFL fan, Bill (whose name I don’t remember and won’t be searching for), who asked the same question of someone… Read More How thirsty is your city for a premiership?
If you’re the Eels, probably a lot more than zero. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Around the start of the finals last year, The Arc posted the probabilities of each finalist winning the AFL grand final. Some guy on Twitter (let’s call him Bill because I don’t remember who it was and I’m not… Read More How many NRL premierships should your team have won?
When I first started getting elbow-deep into NRL numbers, one of my favourite things to think about was expansion. The NRL has had the same sixteen club format since 2007. The Gold Coast Titans were the first new team to be added to the competition since 1998 brought us the Melbourne Storm. The idea of… Read More Analysis – Where to for NRL expansion according to Cap
The answer is Geelong, closely followed by Townsville: Did you want some more explanation or the graph is enough? The graph is fine? Well, I’ll just sit here in case you change your mind. Here’s an appropriate moment from The Simpsons:
There’s nothing quite like a Wizard of Oz reference to title a post on a rugby league blog but here we are to discuss Australia’s third and best city, Brisbane. I guess I, like most Australians outside the SCAM triangle, have a chip on my shoulder about the relative importance afforded to Sydney and Melbourne… Read More Analysis – “Lions and Broncos and Bears! Oh my!” – Brisbane’s footy attendances
Last time, I introduced the concept of Cap. Cap is the ratio of the number of people in the area of a game compared to the number of people who actually turn up over the season. In this case, the lower the Cap (i.e. the more people who attend compared to the size of the local… Read More Analysis – An historical comparison of rugby league and AFL attendances using Cap
The start of the AFL season ushered in a series of gushing articles about how wonderful the nearly 45,000 average attendance for the first round was and how the NRL’s struggle to get even 15,000 to their games was an indictment on the code and a sign that its demise was imminent. This is the… Read More Analysis – The pissing contest that is comparing average attendances