A surprisingly high quality round of games. I think we all expected the Sharks to monster the Tigers and the Rabbitohs-Titans and the Eels-Dragons games to be yawnfests. That couldn’t have been further from the truth. The Gold Coast and Wests stormed out to early leads in their respective games. The better team overwhelmed them… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 15, 2017
I don’t know whether you’d agree with this statement: it was a pretty good round. We had close match-ups up and down the ladder with 1st v 2nd, 7th v 8th, 9th v 10th and 11th v 13th yielding some great games. No one saw the Panthers putting two tries past the Raiders in the… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 14, 2017
A good round for home teams with only the last fixture turning up a win for the visitors. I think the biggest surprise was the Panthers’ win over the Bulldogs. You might’ve tipped them but did you also pick the 38 point margin? I think not. I also missed the Roosters getting one over the… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 13, 2017
Well, I was in Sydney so I didn’t see a single minute of any of the short round of games. What I see on the scoresheet fundamentally reminds me that I know so little about this sport. I thought that, even weakened, the Roosters and the Broncos would be handy enough to take care of… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 12, 2017
Last weekend saw a much more predictable round with teams, perhaps for the first time this season, actually sticking to the form book. In fact, there were no what I would call upsets. The favourites generally accounted for their opposition, particularly the Broncos shutting out the Tigers in Brisbane, the Dragons taking care of the Warriors… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 11, 2017
What a round! High scoring, plenty of upsets and more than a few that went right down to the wire. It was the highest scoring round of the season. The Titans downed the Storm, the Knights downed the Raiders and the Panthers came from well behind – 22 points down at half time – to take down… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 10, 2017
As I suggested in the Tips post, there were a few upsets this round but they weren’t the ones I was expecting. I said it was “hard to imagine” the Eels and Warriors getting up but they did, even if the Warriors were pretty lucky to get a last minute, and winning, penalty at the… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 9, 2017
The thing about probabilities is that people don’t deal with them intuitively very well. This very site rated the Sharks at a 79% chance of winning over the Titans. Sure enough, the Titans came up with the goods in well fought game over the reining premiers. While 79% made Cronulla heavy favourites, that means that… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 8, 2017
The Collated Ladder takes in two inputs: The projected number of wins for each club from the Stocky The projected number of wins for each club from Pythagorean expectations Put simply, the Collated Ladder is an average of these two numbers, with a 2:1 weighting towards the output of the Stocky, rounded to the nearest… Read More Primer – How does the Collated Ladder work?
Given that round 7 didn’t finish until Monday night, I couldn’t get the updated projections out until they’d actually finished playing. Being Tuesday, we’ll skip the updated ratings post and will do the same again next week when the projections update will come out Tuesday night after the ANZAC Day games. This week though, we… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 7, 2017
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