Some interesting matchups this round. The usually highly fancied Cowboys are facing off against the Dragons and the guys with the early form, the Sea Eagles, are taking on the Storm, who are probably looking to right the wrongs of a poor performance against the Sharks. At the other end of the ladder, the Tigers-Eels game… Read More NRL Tips – Round 7, 2017
The Stocky, which is short for stochastic simulation, is a Monte Carlo simulation of the season using Elo modelling to work out what the outcome of that season might be. The basic premise of a Monte Carlo simulation is that if you have a few pieces of the puzzle, an idea of how they relate… Read More Primer – How does the Stocky work?
As in round 5, the winners went up and the losers went down in all systems. The Raiders, Dragons, Sharks and the Storm are the highest rated teams, by varying leads and in different orders depending on the system. Amongst the biggest, less obvious losers are the Cowboys (now down 57 points in Euclid since… Read More NRL ELO Ratings Update – Round 6, 2017
A couple of really, really big upsets in this week’s mix with the Sharks bringing the Storm’s unbeaten run to an end and the Tigers throwing the form guide out the window and taking down a lacklustre Cowboys outfit. The Dragons now top the table, matching the Storm’s 5-1 record. It’s very tight still with… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 6, 2017
I am very skeptical that anything good can come of tipping from the ELO models and my record this year is testament to that. Before I get into it, I’d like to reiterate that I am no expert. Plainly. “Success” Eratos is, contrary to all common sense, showing the way forward this year. I, on… Read More NRL Tips – Round 6, 2017
In my previous primer on Elo ratings, I talked about different ways of calculating Elo ratings with a view of measuring form and/or class. This primer will look in a bit more depth at how I arrived at the specific numbers for the variables. The main variables in an Elo model are: Starting ratings (discrete… Read More Primer – What variables do the Elo models use?
Part of the regular posting will include weekly updates on the ELO model ratings coming out of Euclid (best predictor), Archimedes (short term form) and Eratosthenes (long term class). If you want Thales or Hipparchus, you only have to ask. Unlike the Projections, I’m not sure I’ll bother going back to do rounds 1-4. Here they… Read More NRL ELO Ratings Update – Round 5, 2017
It’s taken a while longer than I thought to get this going but here we are with the first post projecting the future of the 2017 season. The projections will be updated after each round on Monday. Round 5 Results Canterbury 10 (2-3) d Brisbane 7 (2-3) Manly 18 (3-2) d Sydney 12 (4-1) North Queensland 20 (4-1)… Read More NRL Projections Update – Round 5, 2017
Short answer: with a lot of time spent in Excel and Google Sheets. Long answer: It depends on what you want to do. I introduced the Elo rating system in a previous primer. Now it’s time to put it to work. I think most sport’s fans would agree with the following definitions of form and class… Read More Primer – How do Elo models work?
Pythagorean expectation is the idea that you can calculate a team’s winning percentage based solely on its for and against. It originated with baseball nerds but, according to its Wikipedia article, has been adapted for other sports. It is also where the name of this site came from. Pythago is basically what Pythagoras would have been if… Read More Primer – What is a Pythagorean expectation?
Pythago NRL 